Six runners, 2m5½f, soft (soft to heavy in places). Timeform’s pace read is weak, which is the first thing that matters here. In a small-field novice chase, a steady tempo usually means one of two things: either the class horse wins anyway, or the race gets nicked by the one who controls the rhythm.
That brings The Great Nudie right to the front of the conversation. She’s the most obvious pace angle — typically prominent, often happy to lead — and that is worth more than usual if they dawdle early. Her latest run can be filed under trip inefficiency rather than ability: she didn’t stay when stretched towards 3m in a Grade 3, and this drop back to 2m5½f is a clean correction. HRB speed has her right at the top on peak figure in this field, which fits the idea she can run a strong, repeatable number if allowed to get into a jumping rhythm.
Karia Des Blaises is the one the market will lean on because the ratings say she’s the best mare in the race. The problem is you’re being asked to pay short odds for a profile that isn’t tidy. She “races freely”, can waste energy, and she arrives off a heavy fall. Even if you forgive that, a steady pace can make her job harder: she can do too much early without actually turning it into a stamina test for the others. That’s how short-priced mares get turned over in tactical races.
Tareze is the solid alternative. She keeps turning up and running to a level, and HRB’s composite view has her very competitive. The likely issue is tactical: if The Great Nudie gets first run off the front, Tareze may need to commit earlier than ideal to bridge the gap.
No fluff conclusion: if this is run steadily as forecast, The Great Nudie has the most credible tactical edge and a clear trip upgrade. Karia Des Blaises is the class act but looks priced as though there’s no downside. Tareze is the reliable one to hit the frame if the leader doesn’t get it all her own way.