(Class 5, 2m, soft with heavy patches)
This is a five-runner chase that’s more about position and accuracy than raw stamina. Timeform have it as a very weak pace. In plain terms: there’s a strong chance it turns tactical, with the winner coming from the first two early, not from the clouds.
El Rojo Grande is the obvious starting point. He’s three-from-three in quick order and has done it in the exact sort of conditions that matter here: won over C&D at Ffos Las and then followed up on heavy at Lingfield. That’s not “nice form”, it’s direct evidence he handles the track, the trip, and the mud. He’s 6lb higher, but in Class 5 chases you back the horse that’s repeatedly getting the job done, especially when today’s race doesn’t look deep.
The market has Storming Nelson as favourite, and you can see why on one line of data: his Taunton second came with a strong Racing Post figure (RP100) and Timeform flagging him as a likely improver if he jumps better. But the key word is if. The same notes tell you he wasn’t fluent, and in a slowly-run 2m chase that matters more, not less. There’s less pace pressure to bring stamina into play; it becomes a sharper test of jumping and travel. He can win, but at 6/4 you’re paying for a clean round that the latest evidence doesn’t fully guarantee.
As Tears Go By is the proper alternative, and he’s the one Timeform explicitly say the pace scenario should suit. He was runner-up at Fakenham after 10 months off, and he did it while racing prominently and sticking at it — the right shape for today. The negative is just as clear: he’s dropping back to 2m, and that’s not a given for a horse whose better recent chase run was over further. If he travels comfortably early, he’s the one most likely to make this a proper race from the front end and force others to play.
Dj Pete is the classic “could be better than this” horse on old bits and pieces, but the recent story is messy: he’s had runs where he’s weakened badly, and there are explicit notes about jumping left/hanging left. In a small-field chase, you don’t get away with wasting energy or losing ground at your fences. He’s more a place poke than a win bet unless the others underperform.
Quinta Brigada is the one you’d want to be wrong about at a big price, but the supplied evidence is blunt: he’s been well beaten in hurdles and now goes into a handicap chase needing a sharp turnaround. That’s possible in theory, but it’s not supported here.
The no-nonsense read:
If this is a tactical crawl, track position wins it and El Rojo Grande has the cleanest, most repeatable profile.
If someone makes it a proper test and the favourite’s jumping doesn’t hold, As Tears Go By is the one most likely to capitalise at a price.
Storming Nelson is respected on ability, but the current odds look tight for a horse still ironing out his fencing.
Verdict: El Rojo Grande is the solid call. As Tears Go By is the value angle if you can live with the 2m doubt. Storming Nelson can win, but I wouldn’t want to be taking a short price in a race where one sloppy jump could decide it.