2m4f110y | Good to Soft (soft in places) | 4 runners | Pace forecast: weak
This is a proper small-field Pendil: quality profiles, but not a race to get carried away with because the shape is likely to be tactical. Timeform calls the pace weak and that fits. In a four-runner novice chase, nobody needs to light it up and everyone can sit close enough to pounce. That puts a premium on clean jumping, track position, and not wasting energy.
On form, Jax Junior sets the standard. The Sandown win came with a RP149 and reads like the best piece of evidence in the race: travelled in touch, moved up from four out, led at the last and put it away. Timeform also says he “shouldn’t be inconvenienced by any pace scenario”, which matters here because you’re not guaranteed a strong stamina test. The issue is price and profile. There’s a bleeding-from-the-nose note from a poor run at Ascot, and Timeform flag that he’s been beaten twice when trading odds-on in-running. That doesn’t make him a non-winner, but it’s enough to stop you treating 10/11 as free money.
Go West is the obvious alternative on established chase work at this trip. He won at Musselburgh in a handicap with RP141, and his Doncaster second (nse) came with RP138 and TS132, suggesting he can operate at a strong level when things click. The problem is the Kempton run in January: he was prominent, then got detached and finished remote third with RP98. You can forgive one bad one, but you can’t pretend it didn’t happen — especially back at the same track.
The value argument sits with Jasmine Bliss. She’s lightly raced over fences (2 starts: 1-2) and comes here off a Listed mares’ chase win (RP133). That’s not automatically equal to open Grade 2 form, but the way she races is a plus for today: she can go forward, control a tactical heat, and she gets 2lb from the geldings. Importantly, the HRB views you’ve supplied have her top on totals and top on the speed tool. In a race where the favourite is short enough and the tempo could be messy, that’s exactly the sort of runner you want onside at a price.
Old Cowboy is the runner with upside on paper, but also the runner with the biggest question mark you can’t ignore. The Newbury win (RP133) was decisive, yet he fell at Kempton and was reported to have bled from the nose. In a Grade 2, with a likely steady pace where a mistake can decide it, that’s not something you want to gloss over at 9/1.
Bottom line:
If Jax Junior repeats Sandown, he probably wins.
But the race setup (weak pace, four runners) plus the profile risks make him easy to oppose at odds-on.
Jasmine Bliss makes most appeal as the sensible value play, with Go West the forecast material if you’re willing to forgive the Kempton collapse.