(G2), 2m, Good to Soft (soft in places)
This is a proper novice hurdle, not a dodgy Grade 2 dressed up with thin depth. Twelve runners, plenty of upside, and one clear theme: the pace is going to be savage. Timeform calls it “Very Strong” and even adds there’s unlikely to be any let-up. With multiple recent front-runners and pressers in here, that reads as a race that rewards settling, jumping efficiently, and finishing, not empty early speed.
The race shape: who gets dragged into it
There are enough likely pace influences to turn this into a burn-up: Desertmore News made all on debut; Matiwo made all at Newbury; Klub De Reve led when winning over course and distance; Onlyforfrankie has shown forward intent; and Storming George has form that includes pressing the lead. In a 12-runner Grade 2, that’s often where the race is won and lost: too many trying to control it, and the ones who can’t relax get found out after the last.
Klub De Reve looks built for today
If you want a straightforward case, it’s Klub De Reve. He’s a C&D winner, and not in a “got round” way either — his Boxing Day win posted RP128 and TS110, which is a serious marker for a novice. HRB has him top on Total (357.1), and the profile screams “ready for this level”.
Most importantly, Timeform’s specific pace hint says the relentless gallop should benefit Klub De Reve rather than Double Measure. That’s not filler. In a strongly run 2m novice hurdle, the horse that settles and finishes is often the one you want to be with.
Double Measure: the numbers are strong, the setup less so
Double Measure has plenty going for him on raw ability. HRB has him top on the speed ratings (81.88) with a peak 90.41, and he’s posted RP122 in more than one run. That’s solid Grade 2 material.
But the key question is whether he’s as effective when the pace is unrelenting, because Timeform are clearly hinting the race shape may not play to him as well as it does to Klub. He’s not a write-off — he’s just not bomb-proof at the price if this turns into the stamina test it looks like.
Mustang Du Breuil: talent, allowance, but short enough
Mustang Du Breuil is the sexy profile: unbeaten, and a 4yo getting weight (10-12) from the older horses. He won at Doncaster with RP118/TS82, and Henderson’s yard obviously knows what’s required in this race historically.
The issue is price discipline. On the HRB speed table he’s low (59.96) compared to the established top two in today’s figures. That doesn’t mean he can’t win — it means he’s being asked to win on potential rather than what he’s already posted in the supplied numbers. At around 3/1, you’re paying for the next step forward.
Onlyforfrankie: the big TS horse
If you’re looking for a horse with a proper “engine” figure in the pack, it’s Onlyforfrankie. The Musselburgh win came with RP130 and TS121, the standout TS in this race. He’s clearly improved through the season.
You do have to note the Musselburgh comment includes being “left in second” in-running, so it wasn’t a perfectly clean piece of form. Still, the finishing strength reads well for a strongly run 2m.
The value angle: two prices that don’t match the evidence
If you want no-nonsense betting logic, it’s this:
Storming George at around 17/2 looks a touch big on his latest run: he was second on handicap debut at Doncaster with RP129/TS102, which is absolutely good enough to compete here. Yes, he flopped in a Grade 1 at Aintree (RP77/TS54) and the note mentioned hanging right and weakening, but the Doncaster run is the most relevant piece of current evidence.
Kocktail Bleu at around 25/1 is the eye-catching misprice. He was second in a Kempton novice with TS104, then backed it up at Kelso with TS103, and the note says he jumped right there — returning to a right-handed track is framed as a plus. In a pace war, a solid jumper who stays on can nick a place at a big number.
Bottom line
This race is set up to punish anything that races too freely or gets involved too early. The cleanest, most evidence-backed answer is Klub De Reve: course-and-distance, strong TS, top HRB total, and a Timeform pace hint pointing directly at him. Double Measure is a major player on the numbers but has a pace setup question. Mustang Du Breuil is respected on profile and allowance, but the price is tight given the figures you’ve supplied.
If you’re betting, price matters:
Most likely: Klub De Reve
Best value: Storming George 17/2 and Kocktail Bleu 22/1 (at their current odds)
Oppose at the price: Mustang Du Breuil 3/1 (more potential than proven.