This is a low-grade 7f handicap where position beats poetry: Timeform calls a strong pace, but also says hold-up horses are generally disadvantaged at this trip here — so don’t get seduced by late closers.
Pace and race shape: don’t ignore the obvious
There’s enough pace to make this properly-run. Buttercross Flyer has been sent forward over C&D and Lhebayeb has shown front-end intent. Bad Habits, Porfin and Von Krolock are all comfortable racing in the first wave too.
That’s why the key line from the supplied Timeform note matters: even with a strong pace, this track/trip often doesn’t reward waiting tactics. In other words, the pace is likely to be strong because several will go on, not because the race will fall apart for closers.
The contenders: who’s actually set up to win?
Bad Habits (draw 1) — the practical option
He’s been running well in these races and the form comments show a horse who can be keen but competitive. Two runs back over C&D he led over 1f out and was only headed late (RP59, TS51). Last time he had a messy passage (stumbled/short of room, then wide) and that matters in this grade: it’s the type of run you can forgive if the draw lets him get a smooth sit.
Timeform’s pace note even spells out that the presumed strong pace “still shouldn’t see Bad Habits passing the advantage to River Wharfe.” That’s basically the race in a sentence.
Ramon Di Loria — the “in-form” one, but not bombproof
He won here two weeks ago over 6f (RP59, TS43) and did it off a career-low mark. That gives him a clear “still well-enough treated” angle, and a strong pace at 7f could suit if they go too hard early.
But you’re asking him to translate a 6f win into a different test. That’s not a negative, just not a free upgrade. He’s a major player, not a certainty.
Von Krolock — looks solid on paper, price does the talking
He won over C&D on 6 Feb (RP58, TS42) and HRB has him top on totals. Fair.
But the race comment says he drifted left and “just did enough”. Now he’s back in a handicap rather than the softer scenario he benefited from last time (per Timeform). At the shorter end of the market, you want fewer ifs.
River Wharfe — consistent, but the setup is awkward
He’s been finishing off races and ran well at Chelmsford recently (RP58, TS38). The problem is tactical: he often does his best work late, and Timeform has already waved the red flag about hold-up types at this trip here. From a wide draw, he’s likely needing things to go perfectly.
Amaysmont — ability in the past, but energy is leaking
The raw record says he can win at C&D, but the recent RP comment is blunt: he ran too free last time here. That’s the kind of issue that can sink you at 7f — you don’t get paid for travelling keenly in midfield and emptying out.
What wins this?
Not a hero. Not a closer.
The winner is most likely something that can hold a spot, travel without wasting energy, and strike turning in rather than turning up late.
That points you straight back to Bad Habits, with Ramon Di Loria the main alternative if the pace gets stronger than “strong”.
Betting view (no fluff)
Most likely winner: Bad Habits
Best value angle from the supplied info: Bad Habits again — good draw, proven at C&D, and the latest run is more “compromised” than “gone”.
Main danger: Ramon Di Loria (in form, still on a workable mark)
Oppose at tight odds: Von Krolock (needs things his way again; not the wrong horse, just not a giveaway)
If you’re playing it, keep it simple: back the one who can get position and avoid trouble. In this race, that’s the whole job.