Class 5 Handicap Chase – 2m1f, Soft (Heavy in places)
This looks straightforward on the surface, but the pace makes it more interesting than a typical Class 5.
Pace & Setup
There’s no shortage of early speed. Jiair Madrik, Carrigmoorna Rowan, Catboy, Daring Plan and Jaitroplaclasse have all led or raced prominently. Timeform calls it even, but with that many forward types it should be properly run.
That matters.
A solid gallop will test jumping under pressure and stamina at the trip. It should suit something ridden with a bit of patience – Copper Cove in particular – if he keeps out of trouble.
The Main Players
Jiair Madrik (OR 100)
Best recent piece of form in the race. His Catterick second (RPR 105) was a clear step forward and came on just his third start over fences for Donald McCain. He travelled and jumped efficiently, only beaten by a rival in form. Still unexposed in this sphere and looks well treated if repeating that run.
Jaitroplaclasse (OR 99)
Top on HRB metrics and only 2lb above his last winning mark. His Ludlow RPR of 103 gives him a solid chance in this grade. The Taunton run was poor, but if that’s forgiven he’s weighted to go close. The numbers say he should be competitive.
Copper Cove (OR 93)
Was travelling strongly when falling at the last at Hereford. In-running market suggested he was going to hit the frame at worst. Dropped 1lb and has plenty of left-handed experience. The question is confidence after that fall. On ability, he’s well handicapped.
Carrigmoorna Rowan (OR 100)
Second on HRB ratings and has posted figures good enough to win this. However, he bled from the nose last time. On soft/heavy ground, that’s not something to dismiss lightly. From a pure value perspective, he’s hard to back with confidence.
Conditions
Ground is soft, heavy in places. That will turn this into a proper test rather than a tactical sprint.
Jiair Madrik handles soft.
Copper Cove has heavy-ground experience, albeit without a strong strike rate.
Carrigmoorna Rowan is unproven in deep ground.
The trip (2m1f) may catch out Daring Plan, who drops markedly in distance and could lack the tactical speed if they go hard early.
Market View
On balance:
Most solid recent form: Jiair Madrik
Best handicapped on long-term metrics: Jaitroplaclasse
Risk profile too high: Carrigmoorna Rowan
Interesting if confidence intact: Copper Cove
Jiair Madrik is the most likely winner if he reproduces Catterick. He’s progressive over fences and comes from a yard in decent order.
At a bigger price, Jaitroplaclasse makes more appeal as a value play. Top-rated on HRB, workable mark, and in the right race to bounce back.
Verdict
The percentage call is Jiair Madrik.
The value angle is Jaitroplaclasse each-way, strictly on ratings and handicap position.
Keep it simple: side with proven recent chase form, and demand a price about anything carrying health or confidence doubts.