This is a seven-runner novice that boils down to two serious players and a handful making up the numbers. The market has it right: it’s Fountains Blenhein versus Calvino, with the rest needing a collapse.
The favourite: Fountains Blenhein (6/5)
On paper he’s the class act. He’s rated 124, he’s won a Class 3 over 2m6f, and if he runs to that Windsor level he should be winning a Class 4.
But there’s a catch you can’t gloss over: he hangs right-handed. It’s been called out more than once, and he even pulled up at Doncaster with the same issue mentioned. Taunton is right-handed, the ground is soft, and this track punishes anything that won’t travel straight when the taps are turned on turning in. If he drifts, he gives away lengths he can’t afford.
The solid alternative: Calvino (9/4)
Calvino has the most relevant bit of form in the race: he’s already won over this Taunton trip and grade, and he did it properly — travelled, challenged, then went clear late. That’s the exact profile you want in a small-field novice on soft: proven course rhythm, proven stamina for 2m3½f, and no need to guess.
Yes, he was pulled up at Plumpton in the race where Fountains finished third, but he’s since come back and done the job here. The Nicholls/Cobden angle is a positive rather than a talking point, and your track stats support that.
The rest
Khafre (3/1) has bits of form that make him competitive for places, but he’s also got the right-handed hanging note. At the price, you’re buying risk.
Sailing By (10/1) is trying, but hasn’t shown the level needed to beat the top two.
The outsiders look like they’re running for experience.
How it’s likely run
In a small field, the race can get tactical, but it still usually comes down to who jumps best and keeps galloping from three out. Calvino can race handily and control the tempo. If Fountains Blenhein starts edging right when pressure arrives, this becomes Calvino’s race to lose.
Verdict
CALVINO (IRE) to win.
He’s the one with the proper “turn up and do it” profile: course-and-distance winner, solid recent evidence, and fewer questions than the favourite.
If you’re playing it cautiously, a saver on Fountains Blenhein is the only sensible insurance — but you’re betting he finally runs straight on a right-handed track.