This is a proper staying handicap chase for mares. Taunton on soft over 2m7f isn’t about fancy sectionals – it’s about jumping, rhythm and whether you can keep finding from three out. With nine runners, expect the usual mix: a couple who’ll travel, and only a few who’ll actually finish.
The pace and what matters
Taunton can reward a mare who gets into a rhythm and jumps economically. If the tempo is steady, the one controlling it can pinch lengths at every fence. If it’s properly run, stamina and clean jumping decide it late. Either way, errors are fatal in this grade because nobody is good enough to give away ground and recover.
Fortune Dancer (IRE) – the obvious improver
Three chase starts, three wins. That’s not an accident. She’s improved since going over fences and her style suggests she likes being in control and dictating. The handicapper has responded, and this is a stronger Class 4 than the races she’s been winning, but the profile screams “still ahead of her mark”.
At 2/1 you’re not stealing, but she’s the one with momentum, confidence, and the fewest unanswered questions. If she jumps like she has been and gets into that “made-all” groove, she makes the others do it the hard way.
Clotilda (FR) – class act with a sting in the tail
On paper she’s the best horse: OR117, Paul Nicholls and Harry Cobden, and plenty of solid chase form. But she carries top weight and there are two big caveats: she fell last time, and 2m7f on soft is not a gimme for a mare who’s done a lot of her work shorter.
If she jumps clean and stays, she can win. If she doesn’t, she’ll find out very quickly under 11-12.
Cooleenymore (IRE) – the grinder who’ll be there late
She’s tough, she stays, and she handles bad ground. That Wincanton heavy second reads like ideal preparation for this sort of race. She’s not as sharp as Fortune Dancer if it becomes tactical, but if this turns into a stamina test, she’s exactly the type to keep rolling when others cry enough.
The rest – place chances, but plenty to prove
Overabottleofred is consistent and likeable, but this asks a bit more than her current winning level.
Gazette Bourgeoise can run to a big figure, but she’s in-and-out and hard to trust.
Presenting A Queen has been mixing it in stronger races but hasn’t looked one to rely on lately.
Edeiffs Rock won this last year, which will tempt people at 20/1, but her recent efforts and jumping issues make her a risky rebuild job.
Baby Sage has a recent “pulled up” with a worrying note and looks one to leave alone over this trip.
Verdict
This looks set up for the progressive mare rather than the exposed ones.
Selection: Fortune Dancer (IRE) – still improving, solid over fences, and likely to get the run of the race.
Main danger: Cooleenymore (IRE) – stamina and mud are her friends, and she’ll be finishing.
Class threat: Clotilda (FR) – if she jumps clean and truly stays under top weight.
If Fortune Dancer gets a soft lead and jumps straight, she’s the one they’ll struggle to reel in.