This is Clonmel in winter: three miles on heavy and 16 runners. It won’t be won by a flashy turn of foot. It’ll be won by the one that stays, jumps, and keeps finding when the others are treading water.
What this race demands
Over 3m on heavy, pace is rarely the issue — survival is. You want:
Proven stamina at 2m6f+ (because heavy turns 3m into further)
Reliable jumping under fatigue
Recent evidence of form in similar ground and company
The market
Brown Boots is a short-priced favourite at around 13/8. He’s respected, but that price asks for certainty. His big tick is the Navan 3m chase win on soft-heavy, but today is a 3m hurdle in a bigger field. Different test, different pressure, and heavy ground has a habit of levelling reputations.
The one I’m with: Roccabaker
If you want the runner that looks built for this, it’s Roccabaker.
He’s top on the ratings and, more importantly, his recent form says he’s bang in the right lane:
Won at Tramore over a staying trip, showing he can finish his race properly.
Followed up with a solid third over 2m7f on heavy at Punchestown, the sort of run that screams “another 3m slog is ideal”.
He doesn’t need everything to go perfectly — he just needs a clean passage and a sensible ride, then let stamina do the talking.
Main danger: Milanaway
Milanaway is the obvious threat. She’s got a 3m heavy win at Punchestown and she’s well-rated for the job. The only reservation is reliability — she can run big, but she’s also capable of a blow-out. In this kind of race you want fewer question marks, not more.
Others to note
Ballyglass Beauty and Carlas Big Jim have the kind of “keep plugging” profiles that can hit the frame if the race collapses, but both look more like place types unless the principals underperform.
Verdict
This will be attritional and it will suit the horse that’s already proving he can stay and handle heavy.
Selection: ROCCABAKER (win)
Solid profile, right ground, right trip, and a price that makes sense in a race where plenty won’t get home.