Small field, big favourite, and not a lot of hiding places. This revolves around Protektorat, who brings proper Grade 1/2 form into a four-runner Listed chase. He’s rated 165, arrives off a win at Windsor, and the Skelton operation rarely wastes a trip when the prize looks there to be taken. If he’s anything like himself, he dictates and wins.
The race shape matters. Kelso is sharp enough that tactical speed and fluent jumping can make the difference, especially in a field of four where it can turn into a crawl-and-sprint. Protektorat can race a bit keen and has been known to jump right at times, but with Harry Skelton controlling the fractions you’d expect a positive ride: go on, stack them up, then press on from three out and stretch it.
The main danger on paper is Minella Drama. He’s not a headline act at this level, but he’s solid at Kelso, handles good to soft, and Brian Hughes is exactly the sort of jockey you want in a small-field chase where one mistake swings everything. The worry is the recent profile: pulled up more than once and not exactly screaming “rock-solid” right now. Still, in this company he doesn’t need to be vintage to run into the places.
Ain’t That A Shame is the wildcard. There’s stamina and class in the locker, but he’s coming back off a very long absence and that’s a serious ask in a Listed chase against a fit, in-form rival who will put pressure on jumping. If he’s 100% ready he can run on into a place; if not, he’ll look cooked when it lifts.
Stolen Silver is hard to recommend. Recent efforts read poorly, and this is not the race you want if you’re short of confidence or rhythm.
Verdict
This looks made for Protektorat: class edge, current form, and a yard that knows how to win these. Minella Drama is the most credible option for second, with Ain’t That A Shame a risky fitness play for the minor money.