This is a proper veterans’ test: 3m2f, 21 fences, and a long Newbury run-in that punishes anything running on fumes. On good to soft you don’t want a fancy traveller who finds one too many; you want a seasoned stayer who jumps well enough to hold position and keeps finding from three out.
What wins this
Newbury isn’t a track for late heroics if you’ve been scrubbing away from halfway. The winner is usually in touch turning for home, jumps the last two clean, and has enough in the tank to grind it out up the straight. With 10 runners, this shouldn’t be a crawl. If it turns into a proper stamina burn, the ones with shaky jumping or questionable attitude get found out.
The main players
Torn And Frayed looks the obvious profile fit. He’s proven in these staying handicap chases, carries a handy weight (10-10), and his recent form reads like a horse who is still competitive at this level. He doesn’t need a miracle to win — just a clean enough round and a sensible ride.
Eldorado Allen brings class and a proper CV, and his record on good to soft is fine. The only niggle is whether he’s as ruthless as he used to be when this becomes a war late on. Still, if he turns up and jumps, he’s the one most likely to bully them into submission.
Our Power is the “if he’s in the mood” horse. The mark is workable, but recent efforts suggest you’re betting on a bounce rather than following a clear upward curve. Capable, but not bombproof.
Sam Brown won it last year, but this is a tougher ask now. He’s older, he’s carrying 12-0 again, and recent runs don’t scream “primed”. You can respect him without needing to back him.
The doubts at the prices
Mister Coffey has plenty of ability but keeps landing in the same bracket: competitive without being deadly. At 7/1 you’re paying for the name and the connections, not a win profile.
Brave Kingdom is interesting on back form and has the right yard/jockey, but the recent record is too messy to trust in a stamina chase where completion is half the job.
Hang In There is tough and talented, but giving weight away (12-2) in a proper staying test isn’t a freebie — he’s more each-way than win at the likely price.
Capodanno has class but 371 days off in a race like this is a massive question. Copperhead and Gabbys Cross have angles, but both look more like they need the race to fall apart.
Verdict
I’m keeping it simple: Torn And Frayed.
He’s the one with the best mix of current form, workable mark, and a profile that suits a relentless 3m2f chase on good to soft. If he’s still there swinging off the final bend, he’s the most likely to outstay them up the straight.
Selection: TORN AND FRAYED (Win).
Main danger: Eldorado Allen (class and consistency if he puts it all together).