This is veterans’ chasing on decent ground: keep it simple. You want a runner that turns up, jumps, stays, and doesn’t need excuses. Plenty in here have got “P”s and “stopped quickly” in the recent notes. That’s not what you want in a 3-mile chase with 18 fences.
The race shape
Doncaster over 3m on good is about rhythm. If you’re travelling and meeting your fences, you’ll be in the firing line turning in. If you’re sticky at a fence or sulk when off the bridle, you won’t get home.
The main pick: Sainte Doctor (FR)
He’s the most solid profile in the field. His figures put him right at the top, he’s proven on good ground, and he generally runs his race. He doesn’t need everything to fall perfectly into place to be involved. In a veterans’ event, that’s half the battle.
At around 7/2 he’s not a gift, but he’s the bet you can live with: likely to be there late, and the one I trust most to get from A to B.
The danger: Ladronne (FR)
He’s a proper seasoned handicapper and he knows how to win. Course and distance positives stack up, and the mark is workable. The only caveat is he’s not bombproof every time, but if he’s in the same form as his better recent runs he’s a clear threat.
The value angle: Almazhar Garde (FR)
At 18/1 he’s the each-way alternative. He stays, has winning form on this sort of ground, and is the type who can keep plugging on when others cry enough. In this division, that’s often worth more than raw ability.
Who I’m against
Autonomous Cloud (fav) is short enough given the recent profile. He’s got talent, but he’s also got a habit of not finishing the story when things get tough. At 5/2 you’re paying for best-case behaviour.
Erne River has back class but too many recent jumping/non-completion issues to trust in a race like this.
Northern Poet and If Not For Dylan can get involved on a going day, but both need things to go their way more than I’m comfortable with.
The call
Bet: Sainte Doctor to win.
Saver/each-way: Almazhar Garde if you want a price to nick a place.
In a veterans’ chase, reliability is a weapon. Sainte Doctor brings the fewest doubts.