This is a proper novice test, not a soft Grade 2. Kelso’s 2m2f rewards a horse that can travel in the first four, jump cleanly and keep finding from the home turn. If they go a proper gallop, it becomes a stamina-and-hurdling exam late. If they dawdle, it turns into a sprint where position matters more than “paper form”.
The shortlist
Le Beau Madrik sets the standard for upward curve. He’s unbeaten over hurdles, did it with authority at Newcastle and he’s in the right hands for a race like this. The question is whether he stays as composed when the tempo lifts and he’s asked to jump under pressure. If he’s as professional as he’s looked, he’s the most likely winner.
Starmount is the one with the clearest “top-level” evidence. His form includes a Grade 1 where he wasn’t disgraced and his best ratings say he’s got the raw ability for a race of this nature. The make-or-break is fluency: jump clean and sit handy, and he’s the horse most capable of putting the others in trouble turning in.
Kosac D’Oudairies is the hardened battler. He’s been winning, including in a proper fight, and he looks the sort who will keep responding when others cry enough. He’s stepping up again, but if this turns into a slog from the last, he’s the one you want onside at a price.
The rest
The Last Cloud is solid and has mixed it in deeper races, but he hasn’t been finishing the job at this level. He’s a fair place player if they go hard and it falls apart, but I’m not convinced he’s the likeliest winner at the prices.
Montemares has talent, but his Grade 1 run showed he’s not bombproof at this level. He needs to settle, travel and jump better when it gets serious.
Gaelic Rover is unexposed and did it nicely last time, but he’s now meeting battle-tested horses in a Grade 2. He can run well, but he’s got to prove it.
Red Oak is genuine and consistent, but he’s more “keep finding for a place” than “go and win a Grade 2”.
Lord Byron gets a handy weight allowance as the 4yo, yet he still needs a significant step up on what he’s shown.
And The Blue Room being a non-runner matters: it removes one of the stronger form lines and a potential pace influence.
Verdict
This looks set up for class and clean hurdling. Le Beau Madrik is the obvious improver and the one I’d want most if he’s calm and travels. Starmount is the danger with the highest ceiling if he jumps like he can. Kosac D’Oudairies is the value angle if it turns into a scrap late.
Selection: Le Beau Madrik
Danger: Starmount
Value/Place angle: Kosac