Six runners, sixteen fences, and a proper little handicap puzzle where the market has latched onto the “well-in” one and dared the classy topweight to give him weight round a sharp track.
The race in a nutshell
Huntingdon is flat and right-handed. If you jump, travel, and hold a position, you’re halfway there. In a small field you don’t usually get frantic pace, but you do get exposed if your fencing is sloppy because there’s nowhere to hide and the pressure comes earlier.
The big clash: weight vs potential
Icare Grandchamp comes in as the obvious improver. He’s carrying only 10-6 off OR112, and his recent form screams “still on the up”. That Plumpton win on soft was professional enough, and the Haydock second suggests he’s happy in a proper scrap at this sort of trip. The only niggle is his jumping can be a bit sticky at times — and in a six-runner race that matters because every mistake is magnified.
Standing in his way is Mahons Glory, the class act in the field, but also the one being asked the biggest question. 11-13 off OR133 is a serious burden, even in a small field, and even for a horse who has been holding his own in stronger races. He’s consistent, he can travel, and he’s battle-hardened — but giving away that much weight at Huntingdon means he needs to run close to his best and get a clean round.
The lurking dangers
Reallyntruthfully is the “could be anything” runner. Lightly raced over fences, plenty of ability, and his Fontwell chase win showed he can travel and finish. If he gets into a rhythm, he’s the one who can step forward and make the top two earn it. The question is whether he’s fully reliable when the pace lifts and the jumping comes under pressure.
Westerninthepark has the talent to be involved, but the recent PU and unseated are hard to brush off. If you’re backing him, you’re basically betting that he snaps back to form and behaves. It can happen, but it’s not a percentage play.
Then there’s the old storyline horse: Lounge Lizard, winner of this race the last two years. Course form like that deserves respect, and he clearly likes Huntingdon. But he’s 114 days off, carries 12-0, and his last run ended in a pull-up where he never travelled. If he’s right, he can outrun a big price. If he’s not, he’ll tell you early.
Tax For Max looks the one who needs everything to fall perfectly. He’s been struggling to land a blow recently and doesn’t scream “well treated” in the context of this specific contest.
How it might be run
With only six, expect a sensible tempo and a premium on position. If Mahons Glory is positive and jumps clean, he can try to turn this into a test of class and force the lighter-weighted types to go with him. If it becomes a sprint off the home turn, the horse with the best blend of travel and accuracy over the last four fences wins it — and that points you straight back to Icare Grandchamp.
Verdict
This looks set up for Icare Grandchamp. He’s the one with the most obvious “handicap angle”, he’s arriving in form, and he gets weight where it matters. Mahons Glory is the danger on class and resilience, but he’s priced like the weight isn’t a problem — and it is. For a shake-up, Reallyntruthfully is the one I’d fear most if he jumps with fluency and finds a bit more.
Selection: Icare Grandchamp
Main danger: Mahons Glory
Best value outsider: Reallyntruthfully (to hit the frame if progressing)