This is a proper mid-range handicap chase where track position should matter more than late heroics. Timeform’s pace read is weak and they flag Leopardstown’s usual bias at this trip: prominent racers tend to be favoured. With 11 declared, don’t overcomplicate it — the winner is most likely one of the few who can hold a spot, jump cleanly, and still travel when they turn for home.
The one to beat: Jay Pee M
On the numbers he sits clear: top on HRB totals (276.8) and carrying the highest mark in the field (OR 116). The recent hurdles run looks like a tidy prep rather than a change of direction, and his chase form from last spring reads well in the context of this race. He’s not thrown in off the weight, but he looks the best horse and doesn’t need luck if ridden positively. In a race that might not be run at a relentless gallop, that’s a major edge.
Main threats
West Of Carrig is the obvious danger on profile. Likely to be handy, generally sound enough, and he’s been holding his form in similar races. He doesn’t always find loads off the bridle, but if he’s allowed to dictate or get into a smooth rhythm near the front, he’ll be there late.
Hello Jack is the interesting improver. He was a credible third behind West Of Carrig at Fairyhouse and now gets first-time cheekpieces. At 6, he’s the sort who can take a step forward with a cleaner round and a more assertive ride. If you’re looking for one to out-run a price, he fits the bill.
The risky but talented angle
Favori Logique has the ability to get involved, but the absence is huge. Off for 19 months, you’re basically betting on fitness and intent. If the market speaks and he’s strong, fair enough. If he drifts, it’s a straightforward swerve.
Who I’m wary of
Timeform make a case for That’s About Right off a slipping mark, but the likely race shape doesn’t scream “hold-up closer”. If they crawl early, he can find himself with too much to do in a place where being handy is usually half the battle.
Verdict
Don’t try to be clever. Jay Pee M is the most solid winner-shaped option on the ratings and the overall profile, and he’s suited by a race where position and jumping are likely to decide it.
Selection: Jay Pee M
Dangers: West Of Carrig, Hello Jack
Watch the market: Favori Logique