If you’re looking for a race where the “best horse” simply turns up and wins, keep scrolling. The Dublin National is the opposite: 3m4f, a full field, and a pace forecast that matters as much as raw ability. This is the kind of handicap chase where the winner is often the one who gets the cleanest trip, the best rhythm, and the right position when others start crying enough.
The key angle: pace (or lack of it)
Timeform flags this as a weakly-run race. That’s huge over an extended trip at Leopardstown because it changes the shape completely:
If they crawl early, it becomes a positioning battle.
It’s harder for hold-up horses to circle the field.
The leaders and prominent racers can “stack” the pack, quicken late, and suddenly the closers are sprinting after them in heavy legs.
In short: you want something that can travel, hold a spot, and jump at speed when the taps go on.
Savante: the obvious one… for good reason
SAVANTE (IRE) is the horse the pace set-up keeps dragging you back to. In a steadily-run staying chase, she’s exactly the profile you want: a runner who can be handy without burning fuel, and who has the class to put daylight between herself and rivals when it turns tactical.
The little market note is interesting too: she traded bigger in-running than her SP when winning last time. That often suggests the win was better than it looked in real time — maybe she hit a flat spot, maybe she travelled like a horse who wasn’t off the bridle, then found plenty. Either way, it hints there’s still juice in the tank.
The only caveat is obvious: a quick turnaround and a stiff weight. But if she gets the run of it near the front, those negatives become manageable.
Promontory: the danger if it turns honest
If Savante is the “tactical speed” option, PROMONTORY (IRE) is the one who looks happiest if the race becomes a proper test late. His recent form screams staying handicap chase — the kind of runner who keeps responding, keeps jumping, and keeps inching closer when others fold.
He’s the one you can see picking up pieces if:
the pace is stronger than forecast, or
the front end overcooks it, or
Savante doesn’t fire after that quick return.
Battle Of Mirbat: the grinder who needs it to fall right
BATTLE OF MIRBAT (IRE) is the classic each-way type for these races: experienced, tough, and capable of running his race. He’s got enough in the locker to be involved, but he’s also the kind who can be doing all his best work when the winner has already pinched a couple of lengths.
In a slowly-run contest, he’ll need a smart ride — not too far back, not too keen — and a clean line at his fences.
So They Tell Me: pace victim, place contender
Timeform suggests SO THEY TELL ME (IRE) is the one most inconvenienced by a steady tempo. That fits: if your best work comes late, a stacked field and a sprint off the bend is a horrible way to spend your Monday.
But he’s not a total write-off. The claim helps, and if the leaders go too steadily then try to quicken too early, you can see him staying on for a slice—especially if the race gets messy.
Who I’m swerving
In races like this, you can talk yourself into a dozen “big prices”, but the truth is some profiles are just too noisy for a win bet today:
horses with repeated non-completions or pulled-ups recently,
horses who need everything to go perfectly,
and horses whose jumping looks a liability when the race is likely to be decided by rhythm.
That doesn’t mean they can’t pop up, but it’s not how you build a sensible opinion.
The verdict
This looks like a race where position + rhythm will decide more than brute stamina. With the pace forecast on the gentle side, I keep coming back to the same conclusion:
Selection: SAVANTE (IRE)
Main danger: PROMONTORY (IRE)
Each-way/place types: BATTLE OF MIRBAT (IRE), SO THEY TELL ME (IRE)
If the race plays out as expected — steady early, serious from three out — Savante is the one most likely to be sitting in the right place when it matters. And in these staying handicaps, being in the right place is half the job done.