This is a proper staying handicap on testing ground, and it usually pays to keep things simple: you want a horse that stays, travels, and can hold a position without being lit up early. Leopardstown over 3m isn’t the place to be doing the hard yards from the wrong spot.
The race set-up
Timeform call it an even pace forecast, and that matters. In these long-distance hurdles here, the winners are often the ones who are handy without forcing it — close enough turning in, not hunting from the clouds. That’s why the pace note is interesting: Pookie Holler is expected to be better placed than Kingkong Ciergues if the leaders don’t go daft.
The one to beat: Pookie Holler
Pookie Holler is lightly raced, and the Thurles run is the standout piece of form in this. He was a very good second to Pebble Bleu in heavy ground, and he didn’t even get a clean run at it — he blundered late and still finished his race. He’s only 4lb higher, which looks workable given he’s still learning.
There’s also a market signal behind him: Timeform’s “price hint” notes he traded much shorter in-running last time than his Betfair SP, which usually points to a horse that travelled like the winner for a long way and just didn’t get it done at the business end. That profile is exactly what you want in a similar race, especially with more experience now.
If he jumps round, he’s the most likely winner.
Main danger: Daydream Nation
Daydream Nation is the “unknown upside” horse. He’s going into handicaps after limited runs and should improve, but there are two obvious caveats: he’s carrying 11-11 in a slog, and his jumping has been untidy in places (notably jumping left). Handicap debuts at this trip in deep ground can go either way — talent helps, but you need to be efficient.
He’s a threat, but he’s not bombproof.
The awkward one: Pebble Bleu
Pebble Bleu beat Pookie at Thurles and has three wins this season, so she’s clearly capable. The issue is what happened next: she was well beaten in a Grade 3. You can forgive that as “out of her depth”, but it also introduces doubt about how much she had left after that big run.
If she gets into a rhythm and is allowed to control it, she can win again. If she’s pressured or doesn’t travel, she’s beatable.
The rest
Kingkong Ciergues has the right sort of win on his record (3m on heavy) but comes with a recent pulled-up run and the pace/position query. He’s more of a place player than a confident win bet unless you’re sure he’ll be ridden to finish.
Lonesome Boatman brings chase form and a high rating, but switching back to hurdles at 10, carrying top weight in the mud, isn’t the profile I want to be taking short.
Verdict
This looks a race where the sensible option is also the strongest one.
Selection: POOKIE HOLLER
He has the best recent staying hurdle form, he travelled like a major player last time, and the expected pace scenario should let him land in the right spot. If he tidies up his jumping, he’s the one most likely to go one better.