If you like your handicaps with a bit of class in them, this is your kind of race. A listed chase, a proper field of 16, and ground that’s going to reward balance and bravery rather than speed merchants getting away with sketchy jumping.
The shape of it: even pace, no freebies
Timeform’s pace forecast calls it even, and that matters. You’re not getting a dawdle that turns it into a sprint, and you’re not expecting a burn-up that gifts it to a hold-up plodder. In these scenarios at Leopardstown, I’m usually leaning toward horses that can hold a position, jump cleanly, and travel without needing everything to fall apart in front of them.
That brings us straight to the horse the data keeps shouting about.
The one to beat: GORGEOUS TOM (IRE)
Everything about the set-up points his way.
He’s the kind who generally likes to be in the first half of the field, and with the race likely to be run at a fair gallop rather than a messy stop-start, that’s a big plus. His recent form has the right feel for this: he’s been mixing it in stronger company, and even when not winning, he’s been shaping like a horse who belongs in races of this calibre.
The key for me is the combination:
Tactical fit (even pace suits a prominent/travelling type)
Class fit (has already shown he can cope with big-field pressure)
Ground/trip fit (no fear of a proper test)
There is a small caution note: he’s been turned over before after trading shorter in-running, which basically screams don’t get cute and assume it’s over at the last. But as a straight “most likely winner” call, he still comes out on top.
The danger: QUAI DE BOURBON (FR)
This is the classic “ceiling vs confidence” runner.
On his best form, he’s absolutely good enough. The Irish National placed effort tells you he can operate in serious handicaps. And you don’t need me to sell you the Mullins/Townend factor in a big Leopardstown chase.
But… two pull-ups this season is a hard thing to just shrug off. You can argue for a bounce-back, you can argue for a return to a track he’ll enjoy, but you’re still taking a leap of faith that he’s back in the groove. At the prices, I’d rather he was the main danger than my main bet.
The improver who could crash the party: THE WALLPARK (IRE)
If you want a runner who might be better than his current chase mark, this is the one I keep coming back to.
He’s got genuine class from his hurdles days and there were signs last time that he’s starting to bring it over fences. He isn’t bombproof (yet), but if the jumping holds together, he looks like someone who can be finishing stronger than most late on.
In a race where some are carrying baggage or relying on a revival, he appeals as the “progress” angle.
Solid place players
BROOMFIELD BIJOU (IRE)
Her recent second at Thurles came with a nasty moment late (hampered by a faller), and those are the runs I like—because the market doesn’t always fully price in what might’ve been. She’s not the obvious win call against the top-rated types, but she’s a very credible “run your race and nick a place” candidate.
MONBEG PARK (IRE)
Course form is always worth a second look at Leopardstown, and he’s got it. The issue is whether he’s arriving here in the right nick. He’s not impossible, but he’s more “spark back at a price” than “banker material”.
Who I’m against
INVICTUS MACHIN (FR) is the one I’m happiest to oppose for win purposes. Even if the trip doesn’t scare him, the likely pace doesn’t look tailor-made, and he feels more like a horse who needs things to fall perfectly than one who’s going to impose himself in this sort of race.
Verdict
This looks like a race that rewards clean jumping and good track position rather than something from the clouds. With that in mind:
Selection: GORGEOUS TOM (IRE)
Main danger: QUAI DE BOURBON (FR)
Best alternative/each-way value angle: THE WALLPARK (IRE)
Place shortlist: BROOMFIELD BIJOU, MONBEG PARK
If you want, paste in the live prices you’re seeing (or your own tissue), and I’ll turn this into a tighter betting plan: win/each-way, saver, and what I’d lay if the market gets silly.