Six runners, heavy ground, and a pace forecast that screams “steady”. That combo usually produces the same sort of race: plenty of horses still on the bridle turning in, then it turns into a slog from two out where only the ones who stay and keep their hurdles together matter.
Timeform’s pace angle is key here. With no obvious tearaway, this is unlikely to be a proper stamina test from flagfall, which often hands an advantage to the mare who can sit handy, conserve energy, and then quicken—well, quicken as much as anything can on heavy ground—when the others start treading water.
The shortlist
Edith Pelham looks the right favourite for a reason. She’s got the strongest single piece of hurdles form in the race: her Warwick run reads like the effort of a mare who can travel and finish her race off. She’s not bombproof—she underwhelmed at Market Rasen last time—but that came over a sharper trip and didn’t play to her strengths. Today’s setup is more about rhythm, position, and who keeps finding late. In a small field, that’s her lane.
Shotgun Shirley is the obvious danger. She’s a proper trier and her bumper form shows she’s got ability, but over hurdles she hasn’t fully delivered yet. She ran in the same Warwick race as Edith Pelham and finished behind her, staying on without ever looking like winning. The hood hints they want her a bit more settled. If it works, she’s the one most likely to make the favourite earn it.
The others
Afancy Getaway is consistent but has a slightly annoying profile: she’s had chances to win and hasn’t taken them. She was second at Ludlow over a similar trip on soft, shaping like she’d go close again, but heavy ground places an extra premium on finishing power—and she’s been vulnerable when the race gets serious.
Catwalk Girl chased Afancy Getaway home at Ludlow and traded very short in running when beaten last time, which tells you she was travelling like a winner. The issue is what happened when it mattered: she didn’t go through with it, and she hung right late. Southwell is left-handed, so any tendency to edge right under pressure is not what you want in a tight finish.
Amelia’s Star has a bit of class from bumpers but her hurdles form is mixed, including a poor run in a better race at Haydock. She returns from a break and gets heavy ground straight away—possible she’s fitter than we think, but it’s not an easy “back me” scenario.
Borna Gem is the outsider who needs plenty to go right. On what she’s shown over hurdles, she’s up against it.
Verdict
This looks like a race where the market probably gets it mostly right. With a steady pace expected, I want the mare with the best evidence she can travel, hold a position, and then grind it out when the ground turns it into attrition.
Selection: EDITH PELHAM
Most likely winner on form and race setup. If you’re playing forecasts or savers, Shotgun Shirley is the one I’d fear most.
If the pace unexpectedly lifts and it becomes a proper stamina test from a long way out, that can change the picture—but on the data we’ve got, Edith Pelham is the clear percentage call.