This mares’ novice hurdle looks competitive on paper but the race quickly narrows down once you strip away the runners who either lack experience or are likely being campaigned with handicaps in mind.
Race Setup
The pace forecast points towards a strongly run race, which is important in a novice hurdle where several runners are still learning their trade. In these scenarios the race often favours mares who can settle, travel well and finish strongly rather than those who race freely or rely on dominating early.
With that in mind, the focus falls on a small group near the top of the market.
The Leading Players
Indannya (FR) brings the strongest piece of form into the race. She won a mares’ novice hurdle at Warwick in December before stepping up into Grade 2 company at the same track last time. That race didn’t go smoothly for her and she reportedly suffered interference, but the key point is the level she was competing at. Dropping back into Class 4 company represents a significant ease in grade and she looks the most reliable option in the field.
Sevarana (IRE) is progressing in the right direction. After finishing second at Lingfield she went one better at Carlisle last month and did it in a manner suggesting there is more improvement to come. If the race is run at a proper gallop she has the profile of a mare who could be finishing best of all.
Lady Magic (FR) arrives after winning at Kempton and clearly has ability, having previously won bumpers in France. However, the pace scenario could make things more difficult if she ends up racing prominently in a strongly run race. She is respected but may not get things entirely her own way.
Kaydence won a bumper at Uttoxeter and represents a stable that does well with mares. Her hurdle form so far has been respectable without suggesting she is ahead of the principals, and she may ultimately prove better over further than this trip.
The Rest
Several of the remaining runners look more like long-term projects.
Chatty Girl has been consistent but has yet to show the level of improvement required to win a race of this nature.
Our Peggy showed promise at Kempton but still looked inexperienced.
La Cadalora is interesting switching from the Flat but this is her first start over hurdles and the market will likely guide expectations.
Others in the field have shown limited form so far and would need significant improvement.
Verdict
In novice races like this the safest starting point is usually the runner who has already shown the strongest hurdle form at the highest level. On that basis Indannya stands out. Her Warwick win reads well and her Grade 2 run suggests she has been competing against better opposition than she meets here.
Selection: Indannya (FR)
Main danger: Sevarana (IRE)
Value angle: Lady Magic (FR) if settling better in a strong pace race.