This is a typical 0–100 handicap hurdle where the ratings quickly narrow the race down. The HRB totals point clearly towards the top of the market, with two runners standing out above the rest.
The Ratings Picture
Penn Avenue (282.4) tops the ratings and arrives with the most solid overall profile. He has hit the frame in all four starts over hurdles and has been running consistently well. The numbers say he is the most reliable performer in the field. The issue is obvious though: he keeps finding one too good. From a betting point of view he looks very likely to run his race again, but there is still a question about whether he has the finishing kick to convert.
Frank Stamper (276.3) sits just behind him on the ratings and is the horse the market has latched onto. He shaped well when runner-up at Plumpton and looks like a horse still learning his job over hurdles. Unlike Penn Avenue, there is still a sense that improvement is possible, which explains why he is likely to start favourite.
After those two the ratings drop away.
Ugo Bingo (262.8) is the next best on figures and has course form in the book. His last run was disappointing but overall he is consistent enough to be competitive in this grade. He looks the most obvious one to pick up the pieces if the front two underperform.
Raffles Nobu (235.1) has slipped in the weights but has also shown a tendency to disappoint when the opportunity is there. The ability is present but the profile is not one that inspires complete confidence.
The Rest
The remainder of the field look to have something to prove on the figures.
Western Soldier has course form but needs to bounce back.
Perfect Nelson is lightly raced in handicaps but hasn’t shown enough yet.
Tyson has joined a powerful yard but has not produced a run to suggest he is well treated.
Prince Rhinegold, Dreams Ka, Son Of Tyran and Daany all need significant improvement on current ratings.
Verdict
The ratings make this race fairly straightforward. Penn Avenue and Frank Stamper dominate the numbers and it would be a surprise if the winner did not come from that pair.
Penn Avenue is the most consistent horse in the race, but Frank Stamper looks the one with the most potential to improve and may still be ahead of the handicapper.
Selection: Frank Stamper
Main danger: Penn Avenue
Next best: Ugo Bingo