This staying handicap chase doesn’t look strong and the likely race shape could be just as important as the form. The pace forecast suggests a slowly run contest, which usually favours horses racing close to the lead rather than those needing a proper gallop to bring stamina into play.
From a ratings perspective the race revolves around a small group.
Kilbarry Hill comes out top on the HRB totals and has the profile of a horse who could still improve over fences. He showed promise earlier in the season and remains relatively unexposed as a chaser. The concern is the likely tactical nature of the race. Carrying top weight in a steadily run contest can make life difficult, particularly if the leaders get into a rhythm.
Bataillon looks the more straightforward option. He opened his chasing account at Taunton before finishing second on his next start when a couple of jumping errors cost him momentum. That form reads well enough in the context of this race and he lines up here with a low weight and a rider’s claim that keeps the burden manageable. If the race turns tactical, he is one of the runners most likely to be positioned near the pace.
Gyenyame has the ability to feature but has become difficult to rely on. He tends to race lazily at times and that is rarely ideal in small fields where the tempo can be uneven. If the race turns into a sprint from the last few fences, he may find himself with too much to do.
Ignore The Door is one of the more interesting outsiders. He is still relatively unexposed over fences and the step up in trip should suit. While he still has something to prove at this level, he is one of the few runners in the field who could find further improvement.
Others such as Stans The Man and Get Up Mush have bits of form that would give them a chance on their best efforts, but recent runs leave questions to answer.
Verdict
The ratings suggest Kilbarry Hill has the strongest ability in the field, but the likely pace scenario may play more into the hands of Bataillon, who should be able to sit close to the lead and make use of his lighter weight.
In a race that may not take much winning, Bataillon looks the most solid option.
Selection: Bataillon
Main danger: Kilbarry Hill
Value angle: Ignore The Door