Small-field handicaps often turn into tactical affairs and this one looks no different. The pace forecast suggests the early tempo could be steady, which usually favours horses able to travel close to the lead rather than those relying on a strong gallop to bring their stamina into play.
The HRB ratings point clearly to Royal Mer as the top-rated runner in the race. He arrives here after winning over course and distance last time and has a solid record at Wincanton. Track familiarity counts for plenty around here, especially over fences. The obvious concern is the ground. All six of his wins have come on heavy, so conditions on the quicker side of soft slightly blunt his edge.
The progressive horse in the race is Ballymackie. Since joining Olly Murphy he has taken a sizeable step forward, winning twice and defying an 8lb rise at Ayr last time. That performance suggested there is still improvement to come and he should be well suited by the likely race shape. With Sean Bowen booked and the yard in good form, he is the one arriving with the strongest momentum.
Duhallow Tommy is the interesting tactical angle. He made all in good style at Southwell following a breathing operation and could attempt similar tactics again. In a small field with limited early pace, a horse allowed to dictate can become very hard to pass. If he gets an uncontested lead, he could give the principals something to think about.
Another Folly is reliable but may lack the upside of the main contenders, while Pilsdon Pen and Palamon both need to show more on recent form.
Verdict
This looks like a race between the solid top-rated runner and the improving one. Royal Mer has the ratings and course form, but Ballymackie’s upward trajectory makes him the most likely winner if he continues progressing.
Selection: Ballymackie
Main danger: Royal Mer
Value angle: Duhallow Tommy if the race turns tactical.