A small but interesting field of six lines up for this 2m5½f Grade 3 novice chase at Thurles. Conditions are soft to heavy, which will place the emphasis firmly on stamina and accurate jumping. In races like this the margins are usually decided by positioning and reliability over fences rather than brilliance.
Fleur In The Park sets the standard
On official ratings Fleur In The Park is the clear benchmark. Rated 145, he already has strong graded form after finishing second in a Grade 2 chase earlier in the season. That piece of form stands out in this field.
He returns from a short break but arrives with the best established level of ability. Importantly, he has the tactical pace to sit close to the leaders, which is often a major advantage around Thurles where hold-up horses can struggle to make up ground.
If he runs to his rating, he is the one they all have to beat.
Soldier In Milan the improver
The main threat looks to be Soldier In Milan, who is progressing steadily over fences. His recent win at Punchestown showed a willing attitude and plenty of stamina when landing a maiden chase over three miles.
That effort suggested he is improving with racing and the testing ground will hold no fears. The question is whether this race develops into something tactical over a slightly shorter trip, where his stamina may not be as decisive.
Even so, his profile is solid and further progress would put him firmly in the mix.
Mullins pair respected
C’est Ta Chance represents the powerful Willie Mullins yard and comes here after winning a heavy-ground maiden chase at Gowran. He stayed on strongly that day, suggesting a longer trip may suit him best. If the race becomes a test of stamina late on he could be finishing well.
Stablemate Jalila Moriviere tops the HRB totals for the race and receives weight from most of the field. She won on her chasing debut earlier in the season but was below that level in Grade 2 company last time. A return to her earlier form would bring her into contention, though the likely race position may not play to her strengths.
Others face a tougher task
Nowwhatdoyouthink arrives after a convincing maiden win but this is a sizeable step up in class.
Barry Lyndon showed promise earlier in the season but needs to bounce back after a disappointing last run.
Verdict
This race looks to revolve around the proven class of Fleur In The Park and the upward curve of Soldier In Milan.
Fleur In The Park brings the strongest graded form and should get a favourable position in the race, which gives him the edge. Soldier In Milan is the main danger if continuing his improvement, while C’est Ta Chance could pick up the pieces late if the leaders tire in the heavy ground.
Selection: Fleur In The Park
Main danger: Soldier In Milan
Value outsider: Jalila Moriviere