This looks a proper staying handicap chase. Soft to heavy ground and a predicted strong pace should turn it into a stamina test where accurate jumping and proven form in testing conditions will matter more than raw speed.
From a ratings perspective the race is quite clear. The HRB totals point strongly to the top of the market, with Quornofamonday and Toor Khov standing out from the rest of the field.
Quornofamonday sets the standard
Quornofamonday heads the ratings comfortably and arrives here after winning a similar handicap chase at this track four weeks ago. That success came in a big field on heavy ground, so conditions will hold no fears.
His last run produced the best recent figure in the race and it showed he can handle the exact demands this contest will place on the field – stamina, jumping and the ability to keep finding off a strong pace. With course form and current form both in his favour, he looks the most reliable option.
Toor Khov the main threat
Toor Khov sits second on the ratings and comes here on the back of a course win on heavy ground in a novice chase. That performance suggested there is still improvement to come over fences.
The move into handicap company is the obvious next step and the step up in trip should suit. The question is whether carrying top weight in deep ground will blunt his finishing effort, but on ability he is clearly one of the main dangers.
Others with claims
Rusheen has the ability to feature but comes with a slight question mark after unseating last time at Naas. In a big-field chase on heavy ground you want a reliable jumper, and any mistake can quickly end a challenge.
Lake Chad is an experienced course performer who handles testing conditions well. He shapes as though this longer trip will suit and he could be one that keeps plugging on when others have had enough.
Live To Laugh is another worth noting on his return to chasing, especially with a useful claiming rider, but he still has to prove he can deliver in a race this competitive over fences.
Verdict
The ratings and the recent form point in the same direction.
Quornofamonday has already proven he can win this type of race at Thurles under very similar conditions and he arrives in peak form. If he runs to the same level as his last start he is the one they all have to beat.
Selection: Quornofamonday
Main danger: Toor Khov
Each-way shout: Lake Chad