Small-field staying hurdles on testing ground often turn into tactical affairs, and that looks likely again in the 4.05 at Thurles. With only five runners declared and a very modest pace expected, positioning could be more important than raw stamina over this near three-mile trip.
The HorseRaceBase ratings put Blizzard Of Oz on top with a total of 355.6, narrowly ahead of Timeless Treaty (340.5) and Western Walk (326.2). On numbers alone that makes the Mullins runner the obvious starting point, but the form profile raises a few questions. After winning a listed chase at Wexford in October he has been well below that level in three subsequent runs. Returning to hurdles might help, but backing him at around 13/8 means trusting a quick revival.
Timeless Treaty has the most straightforward recent hurdle form. He won a novice event over this course last month in heavy conditions and clearly handles the track and the ground. However he now concedes weight all round with 11-10 on his back, which is never ideal in deep ground over a staying trip.
That leaves Western Walk, who arrives here after two respectable runs in stronger novice chases. He finished third in the Ten Up Novices’ Chase at Navan last time and now drops back over hurdles. In a race where the pace is expected to be steady, he has the tactical speed to sit close to the lead and avoid giving ground away turning for home.
The remaining pair look to have plenty to find. Amirite has been running over fences and returns to hurdling after an absence, while Ottizzini has the lowest ratings in the field and needs a significant step forward to get involved.
In a race where none of the principals are bombproof, Western Walk makes the most appeal. He arrives in solid form, should be well placed tactically, and avoids the recent doubts surrounding the favourite.
Selection: Western Walk
Main danger: Timeless Treaty
Oppose at the price: Blizzard Of Oz