This is a proper staying handicap on deep ground and races like this tend to be simple at heart. Stamina, current form and the ability to handle heavy conditions usually decide it. Flashy profiles count for less when the race turns into a grind.
Lough Nigara sets the standard
On the numbers, Lough Nigara is the clear benchmark. His HRB total of 293.9 is comfortably the best in the field and his recent form backs it up. He won a big-field handicap at Punchestown on heavy ground in January and followed that with a solid runner-up effort there despite making mistakes.
That form is exactly what you want coming into a race like this. He has already proven he can cope with a large field, testing ground and a proper staying trip. Off a mark of 103 he still looks fairly treated and if he runs to the same level again he will take plenty of beating.
First-time blinkers are applied, which could simply help sharpen his jumping rather than change his running style.
Bergamasquo could improve
Bergamasquo is one of the more interesting runners in the field. He makes his handicap debut after showing promise in novice company and represents a yard that does well placing horses in Irish handicaps.
His mark of 110 gives him room to progress and the step up in trip could unlock improvement. He lacks the proven heavy-ground staying form of the selection but has the profile of a horse who could step forward.
Solid but limited rivals
A Nod To Getaway is a consistent type who runs well around Thurles and rarely runs a bad race. However, he often finds one or two too strong and may again end up competing for minor money rather than winning.
Priory Park and Brideswell Lad both have ratings that put them in the mix, but their recent profiles suggest they are more likely to run respectably than dominate.
The Verdict
This looks like the type of race where proven staying form in testing conditions should come to the fore. Lough Nigara arrives with exactly that profile and holds the strongest overall rating in the field.
If he reproduces his recent Punchestown form, he is the most likely winner.
Selection: Lough Nigara
Main danger: Bergamasquo