This is a five-runner Class 5 handicap chase and the shape of the race looks fairly straightforward. The pace projection suggests very little early speed, which immediately puts the spotlight on the horse most likely to control matters from the front.
Eric Carmen sets the standard
Eric Carmen arrives in form and with a clear tactical advantage. The Gary Hanmer-trained gelding has won three of his last four starts over fences, all achieved by attacking from the front on testing ground. That style has been working perfectly for him and similar conditions are expected again here.
He does carry a 4lb higher mark, but he still runs from a workable rating in a 0–100 handicap and the 5lb claim from Benjamin Macey helps offset the rise. In a race where the pace looks weak, there is every chance he is allowed to dictate again, which would make him very hard to reel in.
River Run Free the main threat
River Run Free looks the most obvious danger. He is a course and distance winner and his recent defeat at Ffos Las is easy enough to forgive as the step up to 3m appeared to stretch his stamina. Dropping back to this trip is a positive and the application of first-time blinkers may help sharpen him up.
However, the concern is tactical. If the race develops into the expected steady tempo, he may find himself trying to chase down a leader who has already slipped the field turning for home.
Begin The Luck respected
Begin The Luck is a consistent type who gained a deserved win at Wincanton earlier in the winter. He has continued to run respectably since but must shoulder top weight here and may find it difficult to make up ground if the race becomes tactical.
Others harder to fancy
Ultra Viers remains a long-standing maiden and returns from a break, while Jack Doyen has struggled to show much this season after a more consistent campaign last year. Both would need significant improvement to feature.
Verdict
With limited pace in the race, the setup looks ideal for Eric Carmen to adopt his usual positive tactics. If he is allowed to dictate on the soft ground, he should prove difficult to pass.
Selection: Eric Carmen
Main danger: River Run Free