This Class 3 novices’ limited handicap chase over 2m2f has cut up to just four runners after the withdrawal of Risk De Pluie. Small-field races like this often turn tactical, especially when there is no obvious strong pace on paper.
That usually rewards the horse with the most scope for improvement rather than the one relying purely on established form.
Kap Ouest sets the standard
The one that stands out is Kap Ouest from the Harry Fry yard. He produced a promising effort when runner-up on his chase debut earlier in the season and that performance represented a clear step forward on the figures. With limited mileage and only a handful of starts under Rules, he remains open to further improvement.
Off a mark of 116, he receives weight from the higher-rated runners and that could prove decisive in a race where the margins are likely to be small. If he jumps cleanly and travels as well as he did last time, he looks the most likely winner.
Georgi Girl the main threat
Georgi Girl is the solid option in the race. She arrives after finishing a clear second at Ludlow and that effort suggested she may be getting the hang of chasing. She has a consistent profile and brings useful hurdle form into the race.
However, she must concede weight to Kap Ouest and in a steadily-run race that could make the difference when the tempo lifts from the home turn.
Questions for Excelero
Excelero has ability and is a previous course winner, but there are concerns. He made all to win at Warwick earlier in the season yet has failed to see out his race on his two most recent starts. In a tactical contest he may again travel well for a long way but his finishing effort remains a concern.
Inca De Lafayette needs improvement
The Paul Nicholls-trained Inca De Lafayette showed some promise when third on chase debut but still has something to prove at this level. His overall profile suggests he may need more experience before he can match the principals.
Verdict
With the field reduced and no strong pace angle, this race could develop into a straightforward tactical contest. Kap Ouest looks the one with the most improvement to come and the weight advantage over his main rival.
If he jumps well, he should have enough class to take this.
Selection: Kap Ouest
Main danger: Georgi Girl