Ten runners line up for this 0–120 handicap hurdle and the early signs suggest the race will be run at a strong tempo. That matters at Exeter. This track can quickly turn a steadily run race into a test of stamina once they turn for home, and horses that travel kindly and finish their race properly usually come to the fore.
Jaminska sets the standard
Jaminska heads the market and it’s easy to see why. She has been holding her own in stronger company this season, including a solid effort in Listed company at Newbury. Dropping back into handicap company off a mark of 117 puts her right at the head of the form.
The concern is the lay-off. She hasn’t been seen since November and may not get things entirely her own way if the pace is as strong as expected. She has the form to win but does not look bombproof at a short price.
Sherminator brings the upside
The one with the most scope for improvement is Sherminator. The five-year-old has won three of his four hurdle starts and arrives here after a tidy success at Ludlow last month. Crucially, those wins suggest he is still progressing.
A mark of 118 for his handicap debut looks workable and he should be well suited by a race run at a proper gallop. If he continues along the same upward curve he has shown so far, he has every chance of going in again.
French Emperor solid but exposed
French Emperor has already shown he can operate in handicaps this season with wins at Worcester and Cheltenham. His third at Chepstow last time was also perfectly respectable.
The issue is that he now looks fairly exposed off his current mark. He should run his race again but may lack the improvement needed to get past the principals.
Western Cross the interesting outsider
Western Cross is harder to weigh up. He showed promise in novice company and now enters handicaps from a mark of 112. The application of a hood suggests connections want him to settle better, which could help in a race that looks likely to be run at pace.
He needs to improve but this is the type of race where that is possible.
Others
Phoenix Risen arrives in good form after a Taunton win but now meets younger rivals and carries a higher mark. Lynx De Thaix is unbeaten in France but makes his British handicap debut after a break and is difficult to judge.
Verdict
Jaminska has the strongest recent form but the race setup could play more into the hands of a progressive type. Sherminator fits that description and looks capable of improving beyond his current rating.
If the pace is strong, he may well be the one finishing best.
Selection: Sherminator
Danger: Jaminska
Value angle: Western Cross