This 0–100 staying handicap chase at Exeter does not look complicated. The race lacks depth, the pace forecast is weak, and the ratings point clearly towards one horse.
That horse is Ted The Thief.
The Robert Walford trained six-year-old arrives here as the clear form horse after a dominant 13-length win at Taunton last month. That performance was a step forward again in what is already a progressive chase profile. Since switching to fences his form reads 4-3-2-1, and importantly he did it last time in a strongly run race where he simply pulled away from exposed handicappers.
Looking at the HRB ratings, Ted The Thief is miles clear. His overall total sits around 40 points ahead of the second rated, which in a race of this grade is a sizeable gap. His recent figure also tops the field comfortably, confirming that the Taunton win was not a fluke but a genuine step forward.
The race shape also plays in his favour. Timeform’s pace projection suggests this will be a slowly run contest, which generally benefits horses that race prominently and jump efficiently. Ted The Thief fits that description perfectly. He travels well, jumps neatly and should be able to hold a handy position throughout.
The main threat on paper is Lightonthewing, a veteran who ran well when narrowly beaten over hurdles at Chepstow three weeks ago. He is a previous course-and-distance winner and still capable on his day, but at 11 years old he is fully exposed and unlikely to have much improvement left.
Givehimthehonour could pick up a place if building on his Southwell third for the David Pipe yard, but he would need a clear career best to trouble the favourite.
The rest of the field look badly out of form or simply not good enough on the numbers. Horses like Gingerbred and The Scorpion King have had their chances in similar races and arrive with little in the way of convincing recent form.
In truth this race looks straightforward. Ted The Thief is the only progressive horse in the field, he holds the strongest recent form, and the likely race setup should suit him perfectly.
If he jumps round cleanly, he should take plenty of beating.