A five-runner Class 5 handicap chase at Leicester rarely produces a puzzle and the 4.30 on Friday looks no different. On the numbers, the race revolves around Falco Des Pins, and it is hard to make a serious case for anything else.
The Venetia Williams-trained six-year-old finally got off the mark over fences at Ludlow 16 days ago and the manner of that victory suggests there is more to come. He travelled strongly, jumped cleanly and still had something in hand when the race was put to bed. The handicapper has reacted with a 6 lb rise, but his HRB rating from that run still puts him comfortably clear of this field.
Conditions are also in his favour. Soft ground is exactly what Williams’ horses thrive on at this time of year and Charlie Deutsch, who rides the track well, keeps the partnership intact. In a race where the pace forecast is weak, Falco Des Pins should also be able to sit prominently and control the contest.
The main threat appears to be Night Jet, a previous course-and-distance winner who returned to form when runner-up here three weeks ago. Blinkers seemed to sharpen him up that day and he carries a light weight, which always helps around Leicester in testing conditions. However, he has only managed one win in a long career and has developed a reputation for finding one too good.
Grain Trade is consistent enough but may find the race shape against him. He tends to be ridden patiently and in a slowly run five-runner chase that can easily leave him with too much to do. Lucky Lugger showed a bit more life when third over this course and distance last time but his overall record suggests he is more of a place contender than a likely winner.
That leaves Urblereagh, who ran a fair race on his chasing debut here last month but still needs to find improvement on the figures to trouble the principals.
In truth, this looks straightforward. Falco Des Pins arrives as the only runner in the field with clear upward momentum and his latest HRB rating sets the standard by a comfortable margin. If he reproduces anything close to his Ludlow performance, the others are likely playing for minor honours.
Verdict: Falco Des Pins should prove too strong if building on his recent Ludlow win. Night Jet rates the main danger, while the remainder appear to have plenty to find.