Small-field staying chases like this are often decided by position and jumping rather than raw ability, and the pace forecast suggests this could be a steadily-run affair. When that happens around Leicester, horses that race prominently and jump cleanly tend to control the race.
Fay Ce Que Voudras sets the standard
Fay Ce Que Voudras arrives in the strongest form. The Kerry Lee-trained mare won over course and distance two runs ago before following up here over a shorter trip ten days ago. That success came in straightforward fashion as she made all and asserted from two out, suggesting she is thriving at present.
The key factor here is likely race position. In a field lacking obvious pace, she looks the runner most likely to sit on or close to the lead, which is often a decisive advantage in tactical races over fences.
Although she runs under a penalty, her recent form and proven effectiveness at Leicester make her the one they all have to beat.
Ronnies Reflection a solid track performer
Ronnies Reflection demands respect. Both of his career wins have come over this course and distance, and he again ran well when finishing second here ten days ago.
The ability is there, but his jumping can be untidy. In a race where the margins may be small, a mistake at a key stage could prove costly.
One Last Glance not ruled out
One Last Glance returned to winning form over 2m4f at this track three weeks ago and clearly handles the course well. He now races from a 5lb higher mark, which makes life tougher, and his overall profile this season has been inconsistent.
If reproducing his latest effort he is capable of being involved, but he may not get the same tactical advantage if the race develops slowly.
Subtle Fortune still progressing
Subtle Fortune won a small-field chase at Hereford last month and could still improve over fences. However, that victory came after the likely winner fell late, so the form requires a little caution.
The rest
Esperti needs to bounce back after pulling up last time, while Flemenstide showed little on his return from a long absence and has plenty to prove.
Verdict
This does not look a deep race and the likely tactical shape favours a horse able to race prominently and keep jumping.
Fay Ce Que Voudras ticks those boxes. With recent wins at Leicester and a profile suggesting she is in peak form, she looks the most reliable option to land the hat-trick.
Selection: Fay Ce Que Voudras
Main danger: Ronnies Reflection