This small field mares’ handicap chase at Leicester looks a fairly straightforward affair on paper. Only five runners go to post and, when you combine the HRB ratings with the Timeform notes, one mare stands out clearly above the rest.
That mare is Molto Bene.
The Charlie Longsdon trained seven-year-old has had a very solid season and the HRB numbers reflect that. Her 344.8 total rating is comfortably the best in the race, sitting over 50 points clear of the next best rival. In handicaps of this level that sort of gap is significant.
She also brings the best recent performance figure in the race with a 91.2 last run rating, suggesting she is still operating close to peak form.
Her switch to fences this season has worked well. She won her first two chase starts and has since run with credit in stronger races. Dropping back into a Class 4 handicap against mares who all arrive with something to prove looks a major opportunity.
The race setup also plays in her favour. Timeform expect very little early pace, which should allow Molto Bene to sit prominently. In a slowly run race over fences, being close to the lead is often a big advantage, particularly around Leicester where momentum matters.
Looking at the opposition, there are questions everywhere.
Demoiselle Kap won four races last spring but has not looked the same horse in two runs this season and needs to bounce back. Theonewedreamof showed ability earlier in the campaign but arrives here after two disappointing efforts, including a pulled-up run last time. Taxus Baccata ran reasonably well on her first start for a new yard but her overall ratings are still well below the selection. Gazette Bourgeoise, now ten, looks on the downgrade and arrives off two poor runs.
When reassessing the race, the same conclusion keeps appearing. Molto Bene has the best recent form, the strongest ratings profile, and the most suitable tactical setup.
The only slight concern is top weight on soft ground, but in a race lacking depth her class should compensate.
This looks like Molto Bene’s race to lose.