A small field of seven goes to post for the 2m5f novice hurdle at Ayr, run on soft ground, and the race looks a fairly straightforward affair on paper with the market dominated by two runners: Gatineau Park and Tashkhan.
From a ratings perspective Tashkhan comes out on top. His HRB total of 338.6 is the clear standout in the field and he brings the strongest piece of form into the race after finishing third in the Prestige Novices’ Hurdle at Haydock last time. That was a stronger contest than this and he stayed on well, confirming he is a solid staying type over hurdles. With Brian Hughes booked, he commands obvious respect.
However, this race may not set up perfectly for him.
Timeform’s pace projection suggests this will be a very slowly run race, something that can often turn small-field novice hurdles into tactical affairs. In that scenario it usually favours horses who race prominently and possess a bit of tactical speed rather than those who rely purely on stamina.
That angle brings Gatineau Park firmly into focus.
The Kim Bailey and Mat Nicholls trained six-year-old has improved with each start over hurdles. He opened his account at Lingfield before producing an even better effort when finishing second at Wincanton, travelling well and jumping soundly throughout. Importantly, he still looks a horse with further progress to come, whereas Tashkhan, now an eight-year-old, is much more exposed.
The likely steady pace should also play to Gatineau Park’s strengths. He is expected to sit close to the lead and could gain first run turning for home, which is often decisive in races of this nature.
Of the remainder, Out Of The Woods is the only other runner with any realistic chance of getting involved. He won a maiden hurdle at Hexham earlier in the season but has failed to build on that in two subsequent runs and needs to bounce back. Cushendun has bits of placed form but looks held by Tashkhan on their previous meeting, while the remainder appear outclassed on both ratings and form.
In truth this race should develop into a straight fight between the two market leaders.
Tashkhan sets the form standard, but the race conditions and likely pace scenario favour the more progressive horse.
Verdict
Gatineau Park looks the one with the most upside and, in what could be a tactical contest, he is taken to outmanoeuvre the strong-staying Tashkhan.
Prediction:
Gatineau Park
Tashkhan
Out Of The Woods