The Betfair Imperial Cup at Sandown is rarely a race to overcomplicate. It is usually run at a fierce pace, it exposes weak finishers, and it often goes to a horse who is still ahead of the handicapper rather than one simply clinging on to old form.
This year’s renewal looks no different. There is plenty of pace, plenty of depth, and more than a few with chances. But the one that makes most appeal is Mondo Man.
Timeform have this down as an extreme pace forecast, and that is a major part of the puzzle. In a race like this, you want a horse who can travel, settle and be produced late. Timeform’s own race hint says that such a setup will boost the prospects of Mondo Man, and that looks a fair reading of it.
He comes here with the best Timeform figure of 150p, and that little “p” matters. It says there should be more to come. He is only a five-year-old, lightly raced over hurdles, and still has the profile of a horse who can improve past this mark of 123. His latest win at Plumpton was no more than a penalty kick, but he did exactly what he should have done and did it in the style of a horse with a bit in hand. More importantly, his earlier handicap form suggests he belongs in a race like this. His Ascot fourth in December was better than the bare result, and he shapes like a horse who will be suited by a strongly-run Sandown two miles.
The obvious class act is Fingle Bridge, but top weight of 12 stone in a race like this is a proper burden. He is tough and talented, and his Warwick second reads well, but he looks more of a strong stayer at the trip than a horse ideally set up for a cavalry charge where tactical speed matters. He should run well, though giving lumps away all round is never easy in this contest.
Last year’s hero Go Dante is impossible to dismiss completely because he clearly loves the place and has won the last two runnings. That said, this is a different task now. He is a ten-year-old, more exposed than when he struck before, and his recent form has been patchy. Sandown can spark him back to life, but asking for a hat-trick in a race this competitive feels a stretch.
Rubber Ball is respected after his wide-margin Newbury win, but that came only seven days ago. Sometimes that sort of horse is still thriving; sometimes the quick turnaround catches up with him in a hard-run handicap. He also looks the sort who could get involved early, and that is not always what you want in an Imperial Cup.
For those looking beyond the favourite, General Briar is interesting. He is progressive, has won his last two, and there is every chance he is still improving. He does, however, take a marked step up into a deep, rough handicap, and that is a different examination entirely. He is one to fear, but not quite the one to side with.
Jack Hyde makes each-way appeal. He has been running consistently well, and his latest second at Taunton can be marked up because he did not get the clearest run when the race was on. Off 124, with a useful 5 lb claim, he could easily run into the places if the race falls right.
The HRB figures put Ooh Betty on top, with Fingle Bridge, Star Of Guiting and Jack Hyde all prominent, but raw ratings only tell part of the story here. This race is about how it is run as much as what the numbers say. Mondo Man may not top the HRB list, but the combination of his Timeform figure, his unexposed profile and the predicted pace makes him the most convincing answer.
Recent Imperial Cup winners have tended to be horses with either scope to improve or a very strong fit for the race conditions. That is exactly what Mondo Man brings. He is young, fairly treated, suited by the likely tempo and trained by a yard that knows how to place one in a race like this.
There are dangers everywhere, as there always are in this contest, but the blog verdict is straightforward.
Mondo Man is the one to beat.
Verdict
Selection: Mondo Man
Main danger: General Briar
Each-way shout: Jack Hyde
This looks tailor-made for a horse delivered late off a strong pace, and Mondo Man fits that bill better than anything else in the field.