The 2.52 at Hereford is a small but interesting four-runner Class 3 handicap chase over 2 miles, and tactically it looks straightforward. Timeform expect a very weak pace, which usually turns these races into a test of positioning and jumping rather than stamina.
When that happens around Hereford, the advantage normally goes to the horse racing prominently and jumping cleanly. That immediately brings the defending champion Western General right to the front of the conversation.
Western General Looks The Solid Option
Joe Tizzard’s Western General won this race twelve months ago and arrives here in very similar circumstances. More importantly, he showed signs of a revival last time out when winning convincingly at Chepstow after undergoing another breathing operation.
That performance suggested the horse is back to somewhere near his best. He travelled strongly, jumped well and pulled clear with authority late on. If that effort is repeated, he sets the standard.
He also ticks several key boxes for this race:
Course and distance winner
Proven in this exact race
Prominent racing style suited to a slow pace
Highest HRB rating in the field
In a four-runner tactical contest, experience and track knowledge count for plenty. Western General has both.
Largy Belter The Main Threat
Dan Skelton’s Largy Belter is the obvious danger. The six-year-old won a small field handicap at Leicester last time and is still relatively unexposed over fences.
However, that victory needs a bit of context. He was left clear three out, so the margin of victory exaggerates the strength of the form. The handicapper has reacted with a 7 lb rise, which now puts him up against a seasoned performer who already knows how to win this race.
He could still improve, but he will need to.
The Others Have Questions
Homme D’Un Soir has bits of form that give him a chance at the weights, but the ten-year-old has struggled to reproduce his best recently and tends to be ridden patiently. In what looks a slowly run race, that style could leave him with too much to do.
Uncle Phil once showed ability when trained by Willie Mullins, but his form since moving yards has been poor and there has been little encouragement from his recent runs.
Verdict
Small-field handicaps often come down to tactics and reliability, and Western General looks the horse most likely to get the race run to suit.
He arrives fit, in form and proven at the track, and with the race likely to be run at a steady tempo he should be able to sit handy and control proceedings.
Unless Largy Belter finds another chunk of improvement, the defending champion has every chance to land this race for the second year running.
Selection: Western General
Main danger: Largy Belter