This Class 4 handicap hurdle over 2 miles at Ayr looks a fairly straightforward puzzle on paper. Eight runners line up on soft ground (heavy in places) and the early pace map suggests a very steadily run race, something that will likely favour horses racing prominently.
Recent renewals show a clear pattern. The race is usually won by a progressive type rated between 101 and 114, often from a northern yard that knows how to place one at Ayr. Lucinda Russell has won this race twice in the last three years and she saddles the most obvious contender again.
Triple Crown Ted – Progressive and Well Placed
Triple Crown Ted looks the one they all have to beat.
The six-year-old made a winning start to handicaps at Kelso last month and the bare margin doesn’t tell the full story. He travelled strongly throughout that race and looked the best horse long before the line. The handicapper has nudged him up to 114, which still sits comfortably within the typical winning range for this race.
Just as important is the likely race setup. Timeform expect a weak pace, and Triple Crown Ted is a horse who usually races close to the speed. Around Ayr, especially on testing ground, that tactical advantage can be decisive.
With Derek Fox back aboard and the Russell yard in good form, everything points towards another big run.
Main Dangers
Gamigin is probably the main threat. He’s a previous course winner and ran well when second in a big handicap at Downpatrick in January. However, he tends to be ridden patiently and a slow early tempo could leave him with too much to do.
Cormier is interesting with Brian Hughes taking the ride. He’s been contesting stronger races and drops in class here. At ten years old he’s not getting any younger, but he’s well treated if bouncing back to something close to his best.
Litleangel Duseuil is the wildcard. The French recruit makes his British debut for Lucinda Russell after a breathing operation. The ability is there, but top weight of 12-0 after 280 days off is a tough ask first time up.
Others
El Jefe is consistent but may find this tactical race happening too quickly for him.
Ginger Mail and Irish Blaze look out of form and difficult to support with confidence.
Chanceawetmorning pulled up at Ayr yesterday and it would be a surprise if he turned things around quickly.
Verdict
This race lacks depth and the most progressive horse also appears to get the best tactical setup.
Triple Crown Ted is improving, proven in testing ground and likely to sit exactly where you want to be in a slowly run race.
Everything about the race points his way.
Selection: Triple Crown Ted
A straightforward case and the one they all have to beat at Ayr.