The 4.18 at Gowran Park looks exactly what it ought to look like for early March: a deep, messy, attritional two-mile handicap chase on heavy ground. That matters, because this race is rarely won by a horse that simply travels well for a long way. You need a horse that can jump, handle the mud and keep finding under pressure.
This year’s field has depth, but not many arrive without a question mark. Some are well handicapped but unreliable. Some are solid but exposed. Others have the right profile but still need to prove they can do it in a race of this type.
The one that makes most appeal is Anotherway.
His latest win at Down Royal was not just another small step forward. It was the run of a horse getting the hang of fences and starting to look well treated. He won easily on heavy ground, and his opening handicap mark of 128 looks fair rather than harsh. In a race where plenty of these are already fully exposed, that gives him a clear edge.
The HRB figures back him up. He sits near the top of the pile on the ratings, and unlike some of the others around him, he comes here with the right kind of momentum. That is important in a race like this. You do not want to be talking yourself into a revival. You want a horse going the right way.
There is an obvious danger in Champagne Mahler. He won this race last year, handles Gowran, handles testing ground and comes here off a decent second at Naas. He is the solid one in the field, and there is no great mystery to his chance. If he runs to last year’s level, he will go very close again. From a punting point of view, he is probably the safest each-way option.
More Coko is another with a major chance on the figures. He tops the HRB ratings and has the engine to win this if everything clicks. The problem is that everything has not clicked often enough. His jumping has been an issue, and in a strongly-run handicap chase on heavy ground, that is not something to brush aside. He is good enough, but he is not straightforward enough to be the main pick.
Folly Master will have supporters, and fairly so. He has been running well, he keeps finding, and Timeform make the point that a strong pace may suit him better than some of the others near the head of the market. Even so, this sharp enough two miles on very deep ground may just be a bit on the short side for him when it matters. He looks more likely to hit the frame than to win.
Jigoro is the slightly annoying one. There is ability there, and his Thurles third suggested the blinkers helped. But there is also a long losing run hanging over him, and that usually tells its own story. He is not hard to see running well. He is harder to see actually getting his head in front.
The race trends do not hurt Anotherway either. Recent winners have generally been in the right age bracket, well enough treated to strike, and proven under testing conditions. He fits that mould far better than most. He is seven, progressive over fences and arrives after a clear-cut win in the mud. That is the profile you want.
The one doubt is the pace. Timeform expect a strong gallop, and they rightly flag that it is not an ideal setup for Anotherway if he gets too involved too early. That is the main concern. He is not a certainty, and anyone pretending otherwise is kidding themselves. But in this field, nobody is bombproof.
So the call is simple. Anotherway looks the horse with the best blend of upside, current form and handicap potential. Champagne Mahler is the obvious danger, while More Coko is the one who could make a mockery of everything if he jumps cleanly.
Verdict
Anotherway to win the Shamrock Handicap Chase.
Champagne Mahler the main threat.
More Coko the dangerous wildcard.