A modest Class 5 mares’ handicap with only eight runners and very little depth. The Timeform pace map suggests a weak gallop, which is often decisive around Hereford over this trip. In slowly-run races, positioning and a turn of foot matter far more than stamina.
With an average rating of just 92, this isn’t a race packed with improving types. The focus is on horses already proven in similar company, particularly those with course form.
The Favourite – Granny Hawkins
Granny Hawkins sets the standard.
Alan King’s mare produced the best piece of form in the race when winning over course and distance in November, travelling strongly before quickening clear after the last. That performance showed she handles the track perfectly and a 5 lb rise still looks workable in this grade.
Her HRB rating of 296 is comfortably the best in the field, which underlines the strength of that run compared with these rivals.
The 102-day break shouldn’t be a major concern. King’s runners often go well fresh and this race looks an obvious target.
With Tom Bellamy riding favourites at a 40% strike rate over hurdles, the combination is solid.
The Main Danger – Gower Spirit
Gower Spirit brings the most consistent recent form.
She has finished runner-up twice at Hereford this winter and was still travelling well when making a late mistake at Taunton last time. The drop back to roughly 2m could suit in a steady race, especially with James Bowen booked.
However, the concern is fairly obvious. She has had plenty of chances and doesn’t find a great deal when it matters. In small-field handicaps like this she often hits the frame without finishing the job.
She looks more solid for places than victory.
Each-Way Possibility – East End Girl
Veteran East End Girl is a previous course-and-distance winner and ran a respectable third here in December.
Her latest run came on the all-weather where she travelled strongly before weakening. Back over hurdles and in a race lacking depth, she could easily run into a place again.
At nine years old improvement is unlikely, but she is reliable at this level.
Others
Land Girl’s Luck returns from a five-month break and drops sharply in trip from staying distances. That raises doubts about whether she will have the pace for this contest.
Miracles Do Happen is interesting on handicap debut for Tom Lacey but her hurdle form so far has been very modest.
The remainder look well exposed or out of form.
Verdict
This race lacks strength and there are several with questions to answer. In contrast, Granny Hawkins arrives with the best form, proven course credentials and the strongest rating in the field.
If she returns in the same shape as when winning here in November, she should simply be too good for this opposition.
Selection: Granny Hawkins
Most Likely Challenger: Gower Spirit
Best of the Rest: East End Girl