A small but interesting six–runner handicap on the Newcastle Tapeta where tactics could play a bigger role than raw ability. The race lacks obvious pace and Timeform suggest the tempo could be steady, which often turns these low-grade mile contests into a tactical affair.
Moyowasi sets the standard
Moyowasi arrives here in winning form after producing a career-best performance at Kempton just four days ago. That victory came over this trip and the figure is comfortably the best recent performance in the field. On ratings he is clearly the horse to beat and it’s no surprise the market has latched onto him.
The concern is the race setup. He carries a penalty for that Kempton success and may not get the pace he ideally wants. In slowly run races, short-priced favourites in this grade can become vulnerable if the race turns into a sprint.
Sold Out could control things
Sold Out is an interesting alternative. He won over this course and distance two runs ago before finishing fourth at Lingfield under a penalty. His overall HRB profile is strong for the level and he looks the most likely horse to go forward.
If he does get an uncontested lead he could dictate the race. Around Newcastle’s straight mile that can be a big advantage, especially in small fields where the early fractions are steady.
Dequinto and Mr Fustic
Dequinto has been running consistently at Newcastle and scored here in February. He remains on a workable mark but the race may not be run strongly enough for him to show his best.
Mr Fustic finished third at Chelmsford last time and is well handicapped on older form. However, like Dequinto he tends to benefit from a stronger pace than he is likely to get here.
Others
Wyvern is well treated on historical form but arrives after several disappointing runs and needs a revival.
Take The A Train has shown little and looks up against it.
Verdict
On pure ability Moyowasi is the standout and is the most likely winner if repeating his Kempton performance. However, this looks a tactical race and that brings Sold Out into the picture. A recent course winner who could get an easy lead, he may prove hard to peg back if allowed to control the tempo.
Selection: Sold Out
Main danger: Moyowasi