The 8.15 at Dundalk is a tight six-runner mile contest, but the race revolves around one horse on the numbers — Tokenomics.
The David Marnane-trained gelding sits comfortably clear on the HRB ratings and already has the strongest course-and-distance credentials in the field. His last run saw him land a handicap over this very trip in November, travelling strongly before getting the job done in determined fashion. That performance produced a figure the rest of this field simply haven’t matched recently.
A small field and a very weak pace forecast should also play into his hands. Tokenomics has enough tactical speed to sit handy and in a race lacking obvious pace pressure he should get a straightforward run into the straight. If he reproduces his usual Dundalk level he will take plenty of beating.
The obvious danger is California Dreamer, who matches the selection on official ratings and receives weight as a four-year-old. At her best she has the ability to be competitive here, but she returns from a 174-day absence after finishing last in the Matron Stakes and has to prove she can bring that ability back to the all-weather after the break.
Instant Appeal is a reliable Dundalk performer and a multiple course winner, but his recent efforts suggest he may find one or two with stronger class figures too good in this company. Spicy Margarita and Final Voyage look more like place contenders, while debutant Massarat would need to produce something well above expectations to trouble the principals.
In truth, this race looks fairly straightforward on the ratings. Tokenomics brings the best recent form, the best course record and the strongest overall profile.
If he returns in anything like the same shape as when last seen, he should prove the one they all have to beat.
Selection: Tokenomics