The 3.55 at Ayr is a six-runner Class 3 handicap chase over 2m5f, and on paper it looks the sort of race where tactics will matter as much as ability.
Timeform’s pace forecast suggests very little early speed, which usually means the race turns into a sprint from the second last. In those scenarios horses that race handy or control the pace tend to dominate.
With that in mind, one runner stands out.
Classic Maestro back in calmer waters
Classic Maestro looks the most likely winner.
Jennie Candlish’s eight-year-old has the strongest HRB rating in the field and his second at Sandown in January is easily the best recent piece of form on offer. He travelled well that day in a competitive handicap before finishing a solid runner-up.
His latest run at Ascot is best ignored. That was a stronger race and he was quickly out of contention.
Back in calmer waters here, and likely to be riding close to the pace, he should get the ideal setup in what looks a tactical contest.
If allowed to dictate or sit prominently, he could prove very hard to pass.
Ned Tanner a solid threat
Last year’s winner Ned Tanner is the obvious danger.
Nick Alexander has an excellent record in this race and the ten-year-old returns here 2lb lower than when winning it twelve months ago. Course form counts for plenty at Ayr and he clearly handles the track well.
However, his recent form is patchy and the likely steady pace could leave him needing things to fall perfectly late on.
He remains a danger but may struggle to give weight to a well-positioned rival.
Others look less convincing
Dare To Shout won at Carlisle earlier in the season but has been well below that level since. He needs a bounce back.
Primoz is consistent but not particularly reliable when it comes to finishing the job and has developed a habit of travelling strongly before weakening late.
Pour Les Filles carries top weight after a fortunate win earlier in the year and was pulled up on his latest start.
Twoshotsoftequila returned from a long absence with a pulled-up effort and is difficult to support on that evidence.
Verdict
This race looks likely to be slow early and tactical late, which places a premium on positioning.
With the best recent form in the race and a running style suited to the expected pace, Classic Maestro has a clear opportunity to capitalise.
If he gets into a rhythm near the front, he should take plenty of beating.
Selection: Classic Maestro
Main danger: Ned Tanner