A small-field staying handicap hurdle at Ayr rarely produces anything flashy. These races are usually decided by stamina, jumping and which horse is still willing when the mud starts flying turning for home. This looks no different.
With only six runners declared and Timeform expecting a weak pace, positioning will matter. In races like this the temptation is to side with the horse bringing the strongest recent finishing position, and on the surface that points straight to Briery Butterfly.
She arrives here on the back of three consecutive seconds and Timeform suggest a similar effort should be enough. Her Huntingdon run was solid, chasing home a well-handicapped rival, and she is clearly holding her form. But there are reasons to be cautious about taking short odds.
Firstly, she carries top weight in a slog over three miles on soft ground. Secondly, her profile suggests she travels strongly but doesn’t always find much when it matters. In a tactical race where things could turn into a stamina test from the second-last, that’s not ideal.
The obvious danger is Coylton King, who was still in the race when unseating at the last over this course and distance last time. That was his handicap debut and it hinted at improvement. The problem is reliability. Recent form figures littered with falls and unseats make him difficult to trust, especially in a race where safe jumping could prove decisive.
That brings us to Kalo Athena, who makes the most appeal.
She won over three miles at Wetherby in December and backed that up with a solid second at Newcastle in heavy ground. On that occasion she was a little keen early and paid the price late on, but the run confirmed she stays and handles testing conditions.
Crucially, she runs here off a workable mark of 87 and gets the assistance of Brian Hughes in the saddle. In northern staying handicaps that combination of proven stamina, a fair weight and a top jockey often proves decisive.
The rest look limited. Blue Indigo ran respectably last time but still needs to find more. L’Arme De Bonheur is stepping into unknown territory over this trip after showing little over hurdles so far. Ck O’Mara has shown even less and would be a surprise winner.
This race should not take much winning, but the horse most likely to keep galloping when it gets tough is Kalo Athena.
If she settles early, her stamina should come into play late on and that could be enough to grind past the favourite up the Ayr straight.
Selection: Kalo Athena
A straightforward staying handicap where proven stamina and a good jockey booking can make the difference.