The 7.15 at Dundalk is a typical early-season three-year-old maiden: plenty of lightly raced types, a few well-bred newcomers and several horses expected to improve for the step up to a mile. These races are rarely about what they’ve already achieved – they’re about identifying who is most likely to progress today.
When you combine the HRB ratings with the Timeform analysis, one horse comes out clearly on top.
Son Of Beauty – The Solid Option
Son Of Beauty sits clear at the top of the HRB totals and his debut effort at Dundalk already reads like the strongest piece of course form in the race.
He finished a close third over 7f here six weeks ago, beaten less than a length, and the key point was how he finished his race. He stayed on strongly late, suggesting the step up to one mile is exactly what he wants.
The numbers back that up.
He posts the highest overall HRB rating in the field (307) and a strong level figure, which is usually a good indicator of a horse with proper ability rather than just a flattering run. Importantly, he has already shown he handles the Dundalk surface – something several of his rivals still need to prove.
Stephen Thorne’s stable also has a very solid strike-rate at Dundalk, which adds another layer of confidence.
Put simply, he looks the most straightforward improver in the race.
Star Of Beauty – The Class Angle
The main danger looks to be Star Of Beauty, who shaped very well when third at Naas last summer.
That was a sprint maiden and she finished strongly, suggesting she’ll appreciate this longer trip. On raw ability that run is arguably one of the better pieces of form in the race.
However, there are a couple of unknowns.
She hasn’t been seen for six months, she switches to the Dundalk all-weather, and this is her first try at a mile. She has the talent, but she also has more questions to answer than the selection.
Jojo’s Legacy – Solid but Drawn Wide
Jojo’s Legacy brings the best official rating into the race after some solid two-year-old form. She improved with each start last season and her Cork run over a mile suggests this trip is ideal.
The issue is the draw in stall 15. Dundalk can be unforgiving to wide draws over this trip and it could force her to do more work than ideal early on.
She’s respected, but the setup isn’t perfect.
Others
Caitouna ran a fair race when fourth over course and distance on debut and could improve with that experience. Still, she was beaten six lengths and will need a sizeable step forward to trouble the principals.
Mooncoin is an interesting debutante with a strong pedigree, but Dundalk maidens often favour horses with race experience, especially over this trip.
Verdict
This race looks set up for a horse who already has proven Dundalk form and clear scope to improve, and that points firmly towards Son Of Beauty.
He ran with real promise on debut, the step up to a mile should suit perfectly, and his HRB figures suggest he already sets the standard.
If he progresses as expected from his first run, he should be the one they all have to beat.
Selection: Son Of Beauty
Main danger: Star Of Beauty
Value angle: Caitouna