This looks a fairly ordinary Hereford maiden hurdle where most of the field have already shown their limitations. When you strip the race down using HRB ratings, Timeform data and recent form, the contest revolves around two runners, with one potential improver lurking behind them.
Historically this race is usually won by lightly raced horses aged five or six carrying around 11-7, often coming from stronger yards. The last two winners, Lions Peak and Inoui Machin, both fit that type and were towards the head of the market. That trend again points firmly towards the obvious contenders.
Chasing Glance – Solid but Short
Chasing Glance will likely start favourite and it is easy to see why. He improved significantly from his hurdling debut when finishing second at Warwick over 19f last month. He travelled strongly for much of the race and only found one too good late on.
The Timeform pace hint also favours him. With no obvious front runner in the field the tempo could be steady, and that scenario should suit a horse who travels comfortably.
However, there are a couple of concerns. Firstly, he is an eight-year-old maiden, which is rarely the profile of a horse with huge upside. Secondly, the Warwick race was not particularly strong and the market may well overreact to that single piece of form.
He is the obvious one, but not necessarily the one with the most potential.
Neon Dream – The Class Angle
Alan King’s Neon Dream brings the strongest piece of form into the race. On his hurdles debut he finished third in a Cheltenham maiden on New Year’s Day, a race that reads far stronger than anything produced by his rivals here.
He followed that with another third at Kempton which looked slightly disappointing at the time, but he still ran to a fair level and now returns after wind surgery.
The HRB figures back up the form assessment as well. Neon Dream holds the top rating in the field, comfortably ahead of the favourite.
With only two hurdle runs under his belt and coming from a yard that excels with novice hurdlers, he remains the runner with the most scope to improve.
Big Bert – The Forgotten Runner
If there is one horse who could upset the market leaders it is Big Bert.
He produced a decent run when second in a Huntingdon maiden over a similar trip last spring, form that actually fits well in the context of this race. His seasonal return ended immediately when he was brought down at the first at Fontwell, so he effectively arrives here unexposed and fresh.
James Owen’s yard also has strong strike rates with hurdlers in this distance bracket and during the spring months. If the top two fail to progress, Big Bert is the most likely one to capitalise.
The Rest
The remainder look modest.
Seamoon Story has run respectably without threatening, while Pigeon Forge may improve for hurdling but still needs to find plenty. The rest appear the type who will only become competitive once they qualify for handicaps.
Verdict
This race should develop into a straight fight between Chasing Glance and Neon Dream. The favourite has the most recent solid hurdle form, but the overall strength of Neon Dream’s Cheltenham run stands out in this field and the addition of wind surgery could easily bring further improvement.
In a weak maiden hurdle, backing the horse with the best underlying form and most upside is usually the right approach.
Selection: Neon Dream
Main danger: Chasing Glance
Each-way value: Big Bert