The 3:25 at Hereford is a modest Class 5 novices’ limited handicap hurdle over 2m4½f, and the overall level of form on offer is poor. With an average rating of just 82, this is the type of race where the winner is often simply the horse capable of improving a few pounds rather than one bringing strong established form.
Recent runnings don’t provide a complicated trend profile. The last two winners were 6 and 7 years old, rated in the mid-80s to low-90s, and carried around 11 stone or slightly less. In other words, a fairly typical improving handicapper tends to take this.
By The Grace sets the standard
On both HRB figures and overall form, By The Grace is the obvious starting point. The Nicky Henderson mare returned from a long absence at Southwell last month and shaped with a fair amount of promise when finishing fourth. She travelled reasonably well for a long way before fitness appeared to give out late on.
That run came after 11 months off the track, so it’s entirely reasonable to expect improvement second time up. In a race where most of the opposition are either exposed or limited, even a small step forward would likely make her the one they all have to beat.
Her HRB rating of 229 stands comfortably clear of the field, which reinforces the idea that she is the runner with the most solid profile in a weak contest.
Hey Flint the unknown quantity
The interesting alternative is Hey Flint, who makes her handicap debut for Nigel Twiston-Davies. She has shown very little in three hurdle starts so far, but those runs came over shorter trips and appeared to be more educational than competitive.
The step up in distance to 2m4½f could unlock improvement and her pedigree suggests she should stay well. However, she has a lot to prove and is essentially being asked to improve dramatically from what she has shown so far.
Others look exposed
Of the remainder, Churchman is probably the most reliable but he has had plenty of chances and still remains a maiden. He often runs respectably without ever really threatening to win, and this race may follow the same pattern.
Neeps And Tatties showed a little more last time at Huntingdon, but she can race keenly and this longer trip raises stamina concerns. The rest of the field bring either poor recent form or very limited ability.
Verdict
This is not a strong race and it shouldn’t take much to win it. With that in mind, By The Grace looks the most likely winner. She shaped well on her return from a long break, represents a powerful yard, and has the strongest set of ratings in the field.
If building on that comeback effort, she should have enough class to take this modest handicap.
Selection: By The Grace.