A competitive looking 0–75 handicap over 7f at Newcastle, but the figures narrow it down quickly. The HRB ratings and recent Timeform evidence point strongly towards two horses dominating the race – Goldmoyne and Golden Strike.
Goldmoyne sits clear at the top of the HRB totals and arrives in peak form after winning at Southwell last week. Since joining James Owen he has been thriving in these winter handicaps, repeatedly hitting the frame before getting his deserved win. On raw ratings he is the standout in the field.
However, there are two factors that temper confidence slightly. First is the 5 lb penalty for that recent win, and second is the quick turnaround just six days later. In tight handicaps like this, those small disadvantages can be enough to swing things.
That brings us to Golden Strike, who looks primed to strike again. Richard Fahey’s runner returned to form when winning over this course and distance in February and followed that up with a very solid second at Southwell, beaten only a neck from a 3 lb higher mark. That effort suggests he is still well treated.
From a race shape perspective, he also ticks an important box. Newcastle’s straight 7f regularly favours horses delivered late, and Golden Strike’s running style fits that pattern well. If the pace unfolds as expected, he should be finishing stronger than most.
The veteran Bobby Joe Leg deserves respect around here. He has won ten times over this course and distance and actually landed this race twelve months ago. Even at the age of twelve he continues to run well at Newcastle and could easily grab a place again.
Al Muqdad and Lessay both have bits of form that give them a squeak, but neither arrives with the same level of current momentum as the main pair.
In summary, the ratings make Goldmoyne the obvious one, but the combination of a penalty and quick return leaves him vulnerable. Golden Strike, already proven over the track and still looking well handicapped, appears to have the race set up perfectly.
Selection: Golden Strike
Main danger: Goldmoyne
Each-way angle: Bobby Joe Leg