A low-grade sprint where recent form should decide it
Classified races at this level are rarely pretty, but they can still be predictable when one or two horses arrive in form while the rest are either inconsistent, returning from breaks, or simply out of sorts. That looks the case again in the 7.30 at Newcastle.
The HorseRaceBase ratings point clearly to Classy Clarets and Fortunate Star as the two horses with the strongest recent figures, and it would be no surprise if the race revolves around them.
Classy Clarets sets the standard
Classy Clarets arrives here after winning a Wolverhampton classified just four days ago and that performance stands out in this field. His last-run rating is the best on the HRB sheet and, more importantly, he finally looks effective now that connections have dropped him into this basement grade.
There is a caveat. He is a quirky horse who can race keenly and occasionally do things the hard way. Timeform even label him a headstrong type, which is never ideal in a sharp five-furlong sprint. Still, if he reproduces the level he showed on Monday he simply brings the best recent form into the race.
From stall three he should be able to sit close to the pace and that is usually the place to be over this straight five at Newcastle.
Fortunate Star the main threat
Fortunate Star heads the HRB totals and also comes here off the back of a win, having taken a classified event at Southwell ten days ago. The visor seemed to sharpen him up that day and if it has the same effect again he should be competitive.
The concern is the draw. Stall eight is not ideal in a race likely to be run at a strong gallop and he may have to work harder than the principals drawn inside. Even so, on current form he looks the most obvious danger.
Others with something to prove
Timeform favour Lady Of The Garr, and she does have a solid record in classified company on the all-weather. However, she returns from an 80-day break and her ratings don’t quite match the two market leaders.
Shatin Venture is interesting because he actually won this race last year and has been running respectably in slightly better company. Dropping back into classified grade helps, but a wide draw again makes life difficult.
Desert Master is capable on his day and ran well when second at Southwell last time, though his long losing run tells its own story. The remainder of the field look either out of form or short of the level needed.
Verdict
This does not look a deep race and the most recent piece of solid form belongs to Classy Clarets. If he behaves himself and runs to the same level as his Wolverhampton win, he should take plenty of beating.
Selection: Classy Clarets
Main danger: Fortunate Star