A weak sprint where course form should decide it
Low-grade Newcastle sprints are rarely complicated. Horses that handle the straight track and the Tapeta tend to dominate, and that angle immediately points towards one horse.
Teardrops sets the standard
On the HRB totals Teardrops is clear top rated (248.7) and importantly his profile is built around Newcastle form. All three career wins have come over this course and distance, including a convincing success here in January.
His recent sequence of 1-2-3 over C&D shows he has been holding his form well through the winter. The latest run when finishing last of ten is easily forgiven as he was reported to have shaped as though something was amiss. If that run is ignored, his form stacks up stronger than anything else in this race.
In races at this level, reliable course specialists are gold, and Teardrops fits that mould perfectly.
Main dangers
He’s An Angel brings solid recent figures and won at Wolverhampton in January. However the form hasn’t worked out particularly well and he’s partnered by a relatively inexperienced apprentice. He looks competitive but not necessarily the one to beat.
Howzak is another C&D winner and arrives in decent form after winning here last month. The veteran is consistent but his overall profile suggests he’s more likely to run his race without necessarily improving, which often leaves him vulnerable late.
Golden Prosperity is the interesting runner. His best form last summer would put him right in the mix and the pace setup may suit him. The concern is the 195-day absence, which makes him difficult to trust first time back.
Others
Sedgemoor arrives after winning a classified event but now returns to handicap company where the task is tougher. Bernie The Bear and Yaahobby are long-standing losing types and would need things to fall perfectly.
Verdict
This race lacks depth and the most solid profile belongs to Teardrops. Proven over the track, top rated on the HRB figures and capable of bouncing back from his last run, he looks the most likely winner in a race where reliability counts for plenty.
Selection: Teardrops
A straightforward play in a modest Newcastle sprint.